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000
FXUS61 KALY 211418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1018 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry and breezy conditions are expected today with
a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon.  After a chilly night,
another cool, breezy and dry day is expected for Monday with a
mostly sunny sky.  It will slightly milder on Tuesday with
increasing clouds, before a cold front returns some rain to the
region for Tuesday night into Wednesday, with colder weather
returning for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have spread over the region and based on area 12Z
soundings and upstream conditions, clouds will persist through
most of the day. Some isolated showers in western areas as an
upper cold pool supports the development of the isolated
showers. Just minor adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and
chances for isolated showers.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A broad upper level trough is situated over the Great Lakes and
Northeast. At the surface, high pressure is located southwest of
the area over the eastern Ohio Valley and northern mid Atlantic
States.

By the afternoon hours, the trough axis for the broad positively
tilted trough aloft will be passing across the region. Some CAMs
show a few weak showers or sprinkles trying to develop, but
won`t mention any POPs, as the dry low levels will probably
cause this to just be virga, as large scale moisture is lacking
today. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, as the
cool temps aloft will promote the development of some additional
cu/stratocu. In addition, daytime mixing will promote some
gusty winds for this afternoon, with westerly winds gusting up
to 25 mph at times.

Temps today will be a little below normal. Valley areas will
only reach the mid to upper 50s, with 40s for the high terrain.
With the gusty breeze and partial cloud cover in place, it
won`t feel quite like the nicest late April day, although it
certainly could be a lot worse.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With the trough axis pushing eastward and surface high pressure
building into the area, clouds will decrease this evening and
winds will diminish as well. This should allow for a mostly
clear and chilly night for tonight, with lows in the 30s (some
20s across the high terrain).

Another cool day is expected for Monday, as temps aloft still
remain fairly chilly. Highs will once again be mainly in the 50s
for valley areas, with 40s again for the high terrain. However,
the difference from Sunday will be that high pressure overhead
will allow for more sunshine and lighter winds as well. Surface
dewpoints look a little lower on Monday as well thanks to the
dry low levels expected to be in place.

Monday night will be continued dry and chilly, as high pressure
continues to slowly slide eastward and push offshore for
Tuesday. Lows will once again be in the 20s and 30s on Monday
night with a mostly clear sky. After a sunny start on Tuesday,
sky cover will be increasing through the day as the next system
starts to approach from the west. Winds will switch to the south
and will begin to pick up by late in the day, as the pressure
gradient starts to increase.

Some light rain will be spreading towards the area from the west
on Tuesday night. It may take until the late night hours for the
rain to reach the Hudson Valley and points eastward. Otherwise,
it will become cloudy and remain breezy through the overnight
with lows in the 40s. Any rainfall looks fairly light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level trough and surface low pressure system will continue
to cross the region on Wednesday. The overall upper-level and
surface pattern with this system is becoming more clear in recent
runs. The cold front passage looks to occur during the morning and
early afternoon hours and will bring a period of rainfall to the
region. Precipitation should begin to taper off during the afternoon
and evening hours as the upper trough looks to be more progressive
and quickly depart to the east. A push of cold air will dive in
right behind the cold front and could result in precipitation mixing
with or ending as a brief period of snow, mainly across the higher
terrain, before ending. Most areas will not see any snow
accumulation but localized areas could pick up a very light coating.
High pressure will then bring the return of dry weather for the rest
of the week and into the start of next weekend. Chances for showers
return by late Saturday or Sunday with the approach of a warm front.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows
Wednesday and Thursday night in the 20s and 30s. Highs rebound to
the 50s to lower 60s Friday and Saturday with lows Friday night in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming
TAF period. High pressure will be over our region today with a dry
cold front crossing the sites tonight. A clear/mostly clear sky
early this morning will give way to some fair weather cumulus above
5 kft and some high cirrus by this afternoon. A return to a mostly
clear sky is expected tonight. No precipitation is expected through
the period.

A light and variable wind early this morning will increase to 10-15
kt this afternoon with some gusts to around 20 kt. Wind will
decrease to 10 kt or less tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
today through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for today and tomorrow, valley areas should be back into
the 60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover around for
today, although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning
on Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day.

RH values may be as low as 35 percent during the afternoon
hours today, although there should be a recovery during the
overnight hours. On Monday, RH values could be as low as 25 to
30 percent during the afternoon hours. RH values will again drop
on Tuesday into the 35 to 45 percent range during peak heating.

Winds will be westerly on today and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours today and up to 20 mph on
Monday. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as high as 30 mph
late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis