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000
FXUS64 KAMA 120753
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Upper-level ridging builds over the region today with a shortwave
trough upstream, favoring a broad low pressure to the west. Breezy
southwesterly to south-southwesterly winds are expected today across
the Panhandles as temperatures climb into the low-80s. Critical fire
weather conditions, driven primarily by very low relative humidity,
is forecast for the northwestern combined Panhandles this afternoon
and into the early evening.

The surface pressure gradient will steepen some tonight as the
shortwave progresses toward the area, allowing for 10 to 20 mph
sustained southerly winds to continue through much of the night.
Temperatures Saturday look a few degrees warmer relative to today
with 15 to 25 mph sustained southwesterly winds. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible in the northwestern Texas Panhandle.
Winds maintain out of the west Saturday night which will help keeps
lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A closed trough is forecast to be situated over California and
Nevada to begin Sunday, with the Panhandles under a weak ridge aloft
with a subtropical jet cutting through south Texas. 850mb
temperatures will be around 22C to 24C which is around the 90th
percentile for the date. Clear skies will allow for plentiful
mixing, and temperatures should soar well into the 80s with a 90
degree reading possible along the Canadian River Valley and the
southeastern Texas Panhandle.

The western trough progresses toward the Panhandles Monday, and
southwesterly surface winds are favored in the western combined
Panhandles with a more southerly component to the winds possible in
the east, allowing for some low-level moisture return. There is
reasonable agreement, that the upper-level low will be west of the
Panhandles Monday afternoon and that the trough will have a neutral
tilt. A strong low pressure is favored to develop in eastern
Colorado which will allow for winds to strengthen to 25 to 35 mph
with gusts up to 50 mph. A dryline will develop during the day and
move east, with the extent of the eastward motion very much in
question. GFS, unsurprisingly, pushes the dryline into Oklahoma
while the ECMWF keeps it in the eastern combined Panhandles
throughout the afternoon hours. It is worth noting that some 00z
GEFS members do keep the dryline in the eastern Panhandles, with
seemingly more members jumping onto this solution since the 12z run.
The 00z EPS mean seems to be trending toward holding the dryline
back into the eastern combined Panhandles as well. Therefore, while
at this point it seems more probable than not that the dryline will
hold in the Panhandles to some degree, it is still far out and thus
details can still change.

Thunderstorm development is possible in the late afternoon hours as
the cap erodes east of the dryline, wherever that ends up being. Any
thunderstorm that can develop could quickly become strong to severe
due to a favorable overlap between moderate instability and strong
wind shear, and all hazards would be in play. Confidence in where
this would happen is very low due to uncertainty in where the
dryline will be, and where along the dryline a thunderstorm would
develop. The dryline may retreat west some after 00z as a Pacific
front moves eastward through the Panhandles. The collision between
the retreating dryline and Pacific front may be a catalyst for
additional development for thunderstorms which may become strong to
severe as well.

Not to be outdone, high-end critical fire weather conditions are
expected west of the dryline due to the aforementioned strong winds
and relative humidity values between 5% to 10%.

A cold front moves in from the north Monday night as the system
departs. Tuesday may be breezy to windy as guidance suggests a steep
surface pressure gradient along with the potential for a low-level
jet to develop on the backside of the system. Another system may
develop Wednesday with the potential for breezy conditions and
perhaps a strong cold front moves in. Zonal flow aloft develops for
the rest of the week with cooler than average temperatures favored
at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast. Low-level
wind shear is expected at KAMA and KDHT tonight, and at KGUY this
evening. Otherwise, winds around 10 kts or less is expected
tonight before strengthening to 10 to 20 kts during the day.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Low-end critical fire weather conditions, primarily driven by
very low relative humidity, are favored in the northwestern
combined Panhandles today. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible in the western Texas Panhandle tomorrow due to low
relative humidity and breezy winds.

Weak relative humidity recovery is expected Sunday night (max values
between 20% to 40% in the western combined Panhandles) as we head
into Monday where high-end critical fire weather conditions are
favored west of a dryline due to 25 to 35 mph sustained
southwesterly winds with gusts up to 50 mph and relative humidity
between 5% to 10%. There is uncertainty regarding how far east the
dryline will move during the day, and thus how far east the critical
fire weather conditions will spread, though the western combined
Panhandles will almost certainly be west of the dryline. There is
also question of how receptive the fuels will be given the greenup
ongoing for portions of the area, and the recent 2-4" of rain in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Currently have better confidence that
fuels will be more receptive in the northwestern combined Panhandles
given that area has been mostly dry lately, and that is also where
accelerated drying is expected Sunday night. Currently expecting
RFTIs between 6-8 for the western half of the combined Panhandles
with isolated 9s possible in the northwest.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  84  52  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              81  48  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  86  53  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  50  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               82  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  44  84  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  83  49  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                82  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                82  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                81  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52