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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221717
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Breezy southwest winds are continuing across the area early this
afternoon. Gusts have been a bit higher than expected so have
raised the winds a bit for the rest of this afternoon. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast remains on track with only subtle changes
made to other elements.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weather continues to dry out for the Panhandles as model
agreement has a weak ridge building over the area for most of
today and Tuesday. This ridge will allow us to slowly heat up over
the next two days with most locations back into the 70s to low
80s for both afternoons. Interestingly, in a rare turn of events,
today will actually see the north warmer than the south thanks to
the southern Front Range setting up a downslope pattern rather
than the range to our southwest. Of course this downslope pattern
will result in drier conditions for our northwest with minimum RH
values potentially nearing the 15% mark across the very far
northwest. Added to this will the presence of a decent 850mb jet
that will see winds gusting around 30 to 40 mph for most of the
afternoon. Normally the combination of the two would bring about
elevated fire weather conditions for much of the north, but the
presence of greener fuels and how isolated the drier conditions
are may halt any ignitions.

Regardless, the pattern does begin to shift Tuesday as models see
a weak cold frontal boundary move through that morning. As it
stands, latest runs continue on the trend that the front will
arrive much sooner than originally expected. Unfortunately, this
trend would also mean an end to any chances of afternoon
precipitation and thunderstorms as most previous model runs where
using the front as the main lifting mechanism. Although, some
models do see a potential second chance at thunderstorm latter
that night thanks to some mid-level moisture advecting in.
However, confidence is not too high on such a notion given the
front is expected to bring in drier air to the lower levels that
will effectively cap the Panhandles as a whole. At this time, I
would place best chances in our eastern most counties with those
chances only being 20% at best.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Wednesday morning will see some lingering elevated instability
across the far eastern TX and OK panhandles. Some mid level
moisture will also likely be present within this unstable layer
which may allow for some high based showers and thunderstorms to
form. However there are several broad scale features that will
work against any showers and thunderstorms. This first is a small
ridge will be building across the region at this time bringing
broad scale subsidence which will form a powerful cap that will
extend partially into the mid levels. The other feature is the
panhandles has better odds than not to be under the confluent
sector of the upper level jet. This would further add to the
downward motion suppressing and shower or thunderstorms that
could form. As there is such conflicting variables that current
forecast reflects only a low chance of less than 20 percent that
any shower or thunderstorms occurring. Going through the rest of
the morning cooler air will continue to sit over the panhandles
making this the coldest day of the week. This will see the highs
in the 60s to low 70s across much of the panhandles. These cool
conditions wont last as later on Wednesday afternoon and the
evening the winds will shift to the south to southeast. This will
serve to bring warmer and more importantly moisture back across
the panhandles. Late Wednesday going into the overnight will see
the ridge begin to depart with a potent weather system begin to
influence the southern plains.

Going into Thursday the trough to closed low of the weather system
will be over the southern portions of NV. It will push eastward
through the morning and afternoon hours shifting from a positive
to neutral then a slight negative tilt as it does so. The shifting
of tilt will serve to slowly increase the forcing that this
system generates. This system will help to form first a lee trough
off the front range and then spin this up into a surface low later
in the day. When the lee trough forms it will push dry air to the
east towards the panhandles. While this is occurring southerly
winds will still be pushing moist air into the panhandles. The
conflict between these two air masses will set up a classic dry
line that will stretch N to S across the panhandles. The big
question is where this dry line will setup as this will involve
mesoscale features which are currently fuzzy at best this far out.
The current range of are the dryline could form includes solutions
west of amarillo to the east along the TX and OK border. As of now
the most probable solution pins the dry line forming on top of or
just to the east of Guymon, Borger, and Amarillo during the late
morning to early afternoon hours of Thursday. Along and to the
east of the dryline enough moisture and instability from the
weather system will allow for the formation of thunderstorms. As
there will be a lot of shear and instability from the weather
system these storms will have a chance to become strong to severe.
Current analysis of the variables show that this could include
all severe hazards of winds, hail, and even tornados that cant be
ruled out. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this so keep
up to date on the forecast as it will become more refined closer
to the event. Just to the west of the dryline in the dry sector
there will still be a chance of high based showers and
thunderstorms with the main threat being gusty downbursts. Further
into the dry sector the threat will change from convection to
fire as the winds will be gusty and the atmosphere dry. All
threats on Thursday will die down going into Thursday evening as
the dry line pushes off into OK proper and the winds weaken in the
western fire weather area.

Friday looks to be a more stable time as the weather system pushes
off the to the east leaving the panhandles in a dry westerly flow.
This may still allow for some fire weather as winds are likely to
still be gusty but there is to much uncertainty to be confident
in that.

Saturday and Sunday is looking increasingly likely to have a
potent weather system impact the souther plains. There is still a
large amount of uncertainty associated with this system but early
indications is that this system has the capability of producing
powerful thunderstorms. If and where these occur are still the bug
questions that need to be solved over the coming days.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours at all sites.
Winds out of the southwest will continue through 00z with gusts of
30 to 35 kts. Winds will slow down a bit overnight but occasional
gusts may occur. A cold front will move across the area near or
after 12z and winds will switch to out of the north behind the
front. Gusts behind the front could be upwards of 25 to 30 kts.
Mostly clear skies are forecast with this TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  82  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  52  76  47  67 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              47  73  44  70 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                  57  83  51  74 /   0   0  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              52  83  49  75 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  52  84  50  74 /   0  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               52  84  53  70 /   0  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 47  78  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  50  75  45  67 /   0   0  20  10
Hereford TX                51  87  49  76 /   0  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                54  79  50  65 /   0   0  30  20
Pampa TX                   55  80  50  68 /   0   0  20  20
Shamrock TX                50  84  53  69 /   0  10  20  30
Wellington TX              50  85  53  72 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05