222
FXUS64 KAMA 022045
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For tonight, the atmosphere has stabilized somewhat behind the
latest cold frontal passage which has moved through the forecast
area. Numerical model guidance has reduced pops to non-mentionable
values for tonight, and this seems reasonable.

For Friday through Friday night, a minor upper level shortwave
trof coupled with an approaching cold front and sufficient
moisture will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The best chance for precipitation is expected later Friday night
as the cold front moves southward across the region. A few storms
may have the potential to become severe, mainly Friday evening or
night, with hail and wind the primary hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For Saturday through Sunday afternoon, a couple minor upper level
shortwave trofs embedded in the overall southwest flow aloft are
forecast to move across the region and will bring a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Based on
the predicted track of these minor features, the southern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle will likely have the best chance of
receiving precipitation, while the far northwestern zones will
have the overall lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario
and were utilized in the appropriate grids for Saturday through
Sunday afternoon. Based on the southward progression of the cold
front this weekend, the heaviest QPF amounts have continued to
trend south and southeast of our forecast area as shown in latest
model guidance and WPC QPF forecasts, and this scenario was accepted.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move
across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday
into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models
would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for the
OK and TX Panhandles. Medium range models and associated ensemble
members are in good agreement with that idea and were accepted.
That said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions
and dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday followed
by less wind for Wednesday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 18Z TAFs, gusty north to northeast winds will gradually
diminish through the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail at the terminal sites until later tonight. MVFR to IFR
cigs are forecast to return to the TAF sites late tonight into
Saturday morning as moisture continues to increase across the
region.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  76  51  69 /  10  30  40  60
Beaver OK                  44  79  49  69 /  10  20  70  30
Boise City OK              42  76  42  66 /  10  30  40  20
Borger TX                  50  80  53  72 /  10  30  50  40
Boys Ranch TX              48  80  50  71 /  10  30  40  40
Canyon TX                  49  77  51  71 /  10  30  40  60
Clarendon TX               52  73  54  71 /  10  30  40  70
Dalhart TX                 43  77  44  67 /  10  30  40  20
Guymon OK                  43  77  45  67 /  10  20  60  20
Hereford TX                49  78  51  72 /  10  30  30  60
Lipscomb TX                48  77  52  70 /  10  20  60  40
Pampa TX                   49  76  52  68 /  10  30  50  50
Shamrock TX                52  74  54  71 /  10  30  50  70
Wellington TX              54  75  56  72 /  10  30  50  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02