Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271919
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow (light accums) tip of the mitt/eastern upper
  MI tonight

- Rain/snow chances return Saturday

- Additional active weather early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Pattern/Synopsis: 994mb low pressure is on the west coast of
James Bay, with high pressure in the lower MO Valley. Plenty of
cool air in place over the lakes region, with a persistent wsw
fetch. There is a mass of colder cloud tops just nw of Lk
Superior, wrapping around the west flank of the upper low over
Superior. This moist plume will wrap into upper MI and adjoining
areas tonight.

Forecast: Cool wsw low-level flow is continuing to produce
spotty very light precip (mostly flurries), especially over far
northern lower MI, on up into eastern upper. More moisture is
present in northern areas, and the fetch off of Lake MI is
longer. Moisture steadily increases tonight, especially
overnight. And inversion heights will be on the rise, above
800mb. Expect banded structures to emerge by a few hours after
midnight, once diurnal disruptions are played out. Snow amounts
less than an inch are progged for centralA break Sunday with
and northern Emmet Co, on up into far eastern Chip/Mack Cos.

Meanwhile, in southern areas (especially south of M-72), expect
a transition to partly cloudy skies tonight. Min temps in the
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low continues to track off to the northeast of the region on
Thursday. Marginally cold low level profiles may result in some
light lake effect snow remaining. Heights begin to rise on Friday,
then a short wave clips the northern half of our forecast area,
bringing the potential for light rain and snow on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:
A break Sunday with
Lower level temps (850mb) ~-10 to -12C or so will potentially result
in continued very light lake effect snow/drizzle across the tip of
the mitt northward on Thursday. Not expecting any sort of impact
with this activity, more of a nuisance. Although upper low moves off
to the northeast, and so do any stronger winds aloft, modest low
level flow will result in some modestly breezy wind gusts on
Thursday. Temperatures will be in the 30s and low 40s.

Heights aloft and low level temps rise on Friday, thus much of the
annoying very light lake effect snow/drizzle should diminish
throughout the day. However, the next weak upper system will swing
on by with generally light precipitation expected. The steadier
activity will likely be associated with a weak sfc low pressure
system across the northern Ohio Valley. A rough, eyeball, average of
the deterministic guidance suggests maybe an inch of snow for our
area, all except the EURO, which shows closer to 2-3" for now.
Pretty low (10-40%) probs from ENS guidance for 1" of snow. Thus,
this event is looking like a light rain/snow mix. By Saturday night,
this upper system will eject east and precipitation will end. No
other concerns with the forecast during this time, generally light
winds after Thursday and seasonal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Weak energy on Saturday moves to the east Saturday night. Then,
we`ll be watching a storm in the vicinity of the region early next
week. Upper level pattern is an interesting one as ridging develops
across the west coast, upper low digs into the southwest, and energy
dives down across Canada. These will be the features to watch, with
the interaction between being key. This 12Z model cycle largely
misses the connection (at least in the vicinity of the Great Lakes
Region) between the disturbance to the north and a piece of energy
in conjunction with the low pressure to the southwest. Thus, storm
intensifies east of the area with the more substantial impacts for
the East Coast. Ensemble guidance still shows a wide range of
possibilities in regards to low pressure track and intensification,
so time will tell but something to watch in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Widespread MVFR cigs presently, thanks to lake effect clouds. A
few flurries are also found in nw lower and eastern upper MI.
Expect a period of better lake effect SHSN at PLN late tonight,
with IFR vsbys possible. Otherwise a mix of MVFR to VFR
conditions. Gusty wsw winds continue thru the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk wsw to w winds will persist into Thu morning. Those winds
will start to weaken Thu afternoon and evening. Lighter nw
breezes for Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


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