Text Products for FWF Issued by APX

Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

000
FNUS53 KAPX 221954
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...Red Flag Warning Through Early This Evening...

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds will begin to increase this evening in response to rain
showers tracking across northern lower Michigan tonight. Rainfall
amounts of 0.10" and 0.30" are expected for most areas. Southwest
winds will remain breezy tonight, and become west on Tuesday. A
slight break in shower activity could occur Tuesday morning, but
additional showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, are
expected for Tuesday afternoon/evening.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-230815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......24 degrees warmer...except 17 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 9 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (135).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.16 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 38-43 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 28 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2272).
Mixing Height.......7700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers. Chance of snow showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....23-28.
   24 HR Trend......22 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 12 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (301).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.13 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....43-48...except around 40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler...except 15 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 27 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (439).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (109).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200Rain showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2226).
Mixing Height.......8200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then chance of rain showers
                    and snow showers.
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.22 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....44-49...except 31-36 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........23-28 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (550).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (165).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.18 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 24 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2195).
Mixing Height.......7800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....24-29.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (408).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49...except 34-39 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (466).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 15 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (165).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.16 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 40-45 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2401).
Mixing Height.......8700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.11 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....25-30.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (338).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....46-51...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent...except 29-34 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (458).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
354 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 2400.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......21 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (124).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200Rain showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2731).
Mixing Height.......9800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.13 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms until 2400,
                    then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....26-31.
   24 HR Trend......21 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (247).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph shifting to the north
                    around 21 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.19 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (505).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

NSC
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
