Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
774 FNUS73 KAPX 070730 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for South County Line RX...USFS National Weather Service Gaylord MI 330 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 07. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Passing high clouds this morning at the burn site gradually thicken/lower midday in advance of increasing rain shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly at 2 PM. Prior to rain arrival, a brief window exists for RHs to fall to near 40 percent. Light winds this morning turn breezy out of the southeast with gusts as high as 20-25 mph through the afternoon. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........41 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 1400-3100 ft AGL in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (72.0-515.0) increasing to poor to good (396.0-778.0) in the afternoon, then decreasing to poor (274.0) late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........31 38 46 53 66 80 93 90 88 85 Weather cov..... ISO NUM DEF DEF DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............47 51 58 62 65 68 69 66 68 65 RH..............65 59 45 43 41 43 45 56 59 68 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..9 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 ft wind gust.20 22 22 22 23 23 23 24 24 24 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.4 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.15 20 20 23 24 25 25 24 23 20 Vrate kt-ft.....72 242 272 515 646 778 760 505 396 274 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR GD GD GD FR PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Min temperature.....Around 50. Max humidity........93 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms in the evening. Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the west 9 to 12 mph overnight. Mixing height.......400-1500 ft AGL. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (39.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........85 86 86 77 67 57 65 73 80 78 76 74 Weather cov.....NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RNF RNF RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Temp............65 65 63 61 59 58 56 54 53 53 52 51 RH..............68 68 78 81 87 86 86 93 93 89 93 93 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 ft wind spd..14 14 14 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 ft wind gust.22 22 22 14 14 14 9 9 9 9 9 9 Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE S S SW SW W W W W Transp wind spd.21 17 14 13 9 10 10 10 9 12 9 10 Vrate kt-ft.....303 173 117 78 44 58 52 47 43 52 39 47 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Max temperature.....Around 64. Min humidity........61 percent. 20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest around 8 mph in the afternoon. Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 14 to 16 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2300-2400 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (50.0-406.0). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........70 62 57 55 43 36 Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............51 52 55 60 62 62 RH..............89 86 83 72 67 62 20 ft wind dir..SW SW W W W NW 20 ft wind spd..7 7 10 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.9 9 15 17 17 17 Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1000 1500 2100 2400 Haines index....3 4 4 4 3 3 Transport wind..W 12 W 12 W 13 W 14 W 18 NW 16 Vrate kt-ft.....51 59 127 213 385 373 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...MJG Requested by...Nieland Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413287.0/APX .DELDT 05/07/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Joseph.Raspotnik@usda.gov