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000
FXUS61 KBGM 141639
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1239 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast-moving area of low pressure will move over Central New
York and Northeastern Pennsylvania Sunday. This will result in
bringing widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
across the forecast area. Heading into the early week, Monday
and Tuesday will be dry, with showers returning Wednesday and
lasting the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Early this afternoon a cluster of renegade showers moved
through NE PA which was poorly modeled by the hi-res guidance.
One cell produced a bit of lightning over Luzerne county as it
moved through. Currently, clusters of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are pushing a bit further south in central NY
early this afternoon than anticipated. This has kept
temperatures in check today across central NY with many
locations still in the 40`s and increasing skepticism that the
potential for severe weather will extent into our NY counties
at all.


However, 12Z model guidance still has CAPE advecting into NE PA
around 500 J/KG for a time late this afternoon and evening
coupled with a high shear environment. A line of showers and
thunderstorms along the front should develop near the NY/PA line
with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Quick organization
into line segments should keep the main threat as gusty winds
with a tornado or two not out of the question.

Previous...


A warm front is currently pushing through the area as of late
this morning with a low pressure system tracking across northern
NY. A band of showers with the warm front is still expected to
advance eastward with it. The narrow window of instability into
a high shear environment is still modeled to occur later this
afternoon and evening across NE PA. However, mesoscale modeling
is not as robust as runs yesterday with this potential
including the 12Z HRRR which just came in. Dewpoints only
getting into the low and mid 50`s is another cause of concern as
well along with the thick clouds across NY. While the potential
for severe weather continues some signs are showing up the
threat may end up lower later today.


405 AM Update...

A fast-moving area of low pressure moving over our area Sunday
will bring widespread showers, as well as strong to severe
thunderstorms. A first wave of showers will move through in the
morning across mainly Central NY. Later into the afternoon and
into the evening is when strong to severe thunderstorm develop
occurs. A line of thunderstorms will move west-northwest to
east-southeast starting between 2pm to 4pm over northern
portions of Central NY. As these storms progress south-
southeastward, they will move into a more favorable area for
severe development over the Southern Tier and Northeastern PA
between 4pm and 6pm. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5, as
well as CAPE values of 500 to 700 Joules, and with shear around
30-50 kts leaves NE PA and the Southern Tier prime for severe
thunderstorm development Sunday evening. Damaging winds, hail
greater than 1 inch, and tornadoes are all possible in this
scenario for the Southern Tier and NE PA after 4pm.

Things will quiet down heading into Sunday night and into
Monday, with dry conditions expected and temperatures in the
mid-50s to low-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
402 AM Update...

High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, with fair weather and a warming trend continuing. Low
pressure will move into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A warm
front extending across the Mid-Atlantic states will lift into the
region early Wednesday, with showers overspreading the area from SW
to NE through the day. The onset time of showers appears to be
slowing based on the latest model runs, and PoPs have been shaved
back to account for this trend.

Precip chances will increase late Wednesday night into Thursday as a
cold front approaches from the west, and a few thunderstorms are
possible as well. Rain showers look to hang around most of the day
Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
402 AM Update...

There will likely be a drier spell sometime Thursday night into
Friday, but uncertainty in timing means mentionable PoPs are
present for the period. Rain chances look to increase late
Friday as a fast moving upper level trough rolls through the
area. This looks to usher in a period of cooler weather with
scattered lake-enhanced showers Saturday and Sunday, though it
doesn`t look to be a total washout either. Drier conditions look
to arrive late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR showers through mid afternoon at
all TAF sites. A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms
looks to develop somewhere between KITH/KRME line to a KELM/KBGM
line. The highest likelihood of any thunderstorms is still at
KAVP where the potential for gusty winds is present with timing
in the TEMPO from about 21-01Z that will be narrowed a bit with
future AMD`s.

MVFR ceilings are likely to form tonight for all NY TAF sites
overnight then slowly lift to VFR by 16Z or so on Monday.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MWG