Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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255 FXUS61 KBGM 041905 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Updated pops and sky cover a bit with the mid morning and noontime updates, forecast discussion below on track. 630 am update... Increased pops in the southern tier and Bradford county where rain has moved into the area for now. Cameras show the road is wet. Light rain/sprinkles coming out of a 10k deck. Increased cloud cover since it is cloudy everywhere. There could be some breaks still midday after the rain retreats back south for a few hours. 330 am update... A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period. With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update... A weak surface trough will slowly exit the region to the east Monday morning. Lingering showers are expected to remain across the Twin Tiers into the early afternoon hours, with a possible rumble of thunder east of I-81 in NEPA. A ridge of high pressure over the north central US will amplify Monday morning, generating a surface high over the Great Lakes. This will slide eastward during the day Monday, bringing NW flow and dry air into the region. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure overhead Monday night will bring, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and very light to calm winds. This will be a nice setup for radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 40s. Currently not seeing any frost for our growing zones, but we will have to monitor this as we get closer. Tuesday will be a wonderfully pleasant spring day as the ridge and accompanying surface high moves overhead, bringing dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Winds shift to WSW during the afternoon, allowing some warmer temps to push into the Twin Tiers. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s here, with low to mid 70s to the north. Tuesday night will not be as cool as the night before as SW winds advect in a warm, moist airmass accompanied by increased cloudiness. Temps will fall into the mid 50s for most, with upper 50s in the Wyoming Valley and upper 40s in the Tug Hill and Catskills. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 342 AM Update... The nice, dry weather does not stick around for long as a positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the eastern US, pushing shortwave after shortwave through the region during this period. The first shortwave will push through Wednesday, bringing in a warm front during the morning hours and scattered rain showers to the region. Guidance is showing very low chances( <20%) of CAPE reaching 500 j/kg across the Twin Tiers during the afternoon. Rain showers will continue through the afternoon, with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm over NEPA. The upper level trough will drift eastward through the end of the week, pushing multiple shortwaves and associated rain showers through the area Thursday through Sunday. The upper level trough will move overhead Friday, keeping temps cool for the weekend as a Canadian airmass slides in from the north. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR this evening with showers developing. Then IFR expected for most of the overnight through the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southerly winds fairly consistent around 10 knots through the TAF period. However, occasional gusts of 15-20 knots can not be ruled out. Marginal LLWS can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Sunday but data shows this as a lower chance of occurring at this time. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Sunday night... Showers ending with ceilings lifting some in the afternoon then lowering again Sunday night. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...MWG/TAC