Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282056
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
356 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...A slow moving frontal boundary will provide a chance of
showers tonight and Wednesday...

Currently, surface high pressure over Canada and low pressure over
the central high plains is producing a southeast surface flow over
western and central ND. An upper level impulse and daytime diurnal
heating is producing an area of showers over north central and
western ND this afternoon. In addition, our convergent low level
flow is still producing some fog over the north central.

Tonight and Wednesday...Due to a digging trough over the southern
plains and another digging trough off the west coast, our impulse
tracks very slowly to the east. Shower chances in the west and
north central tonight will shift east into central ND on
Wednesday. With surface temperatures mostly above freezing, do not
anticipate any significant freezing precipitation issues.

Also, the fog across the north central may once again expand in
areal coverage again tonight, as indicated by latest HRRR/RAP
mesoscale models. Bufkit soundings do not indicate as deep a layer
of moisture at the surface as was available last night. So will
keep a mention of fog in the forecast, but will once again let the
evening shift monitor things as confidence is too low for issuing
a dense fog hazard at this time.

If we do see more widespread fog again tonight, this may hold down
our temperatures on Wednesday. Otherwise, we are expecting highs
back up into the lower 50s north central, and the lower 60s over
the west central into far southwest ND.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An active pattern continues into the long term part of the
forecast. However, with a split flow pattern the majority of the
energy either moves north of the forecast area or well to our
south. We are expecting an upper level trough to traverse the area
late Thursday into early Saturday. This is expected to produce
scattered showers with generally light amounts. Precipitation may
fall as a mix Friday night into Saturday morning across the
northwest and north central. Another system moves into the plains
early to mid week, next week. There is still a lot of model
uncertainty with this system and will it will need to be watched.
But at this time a southern track is favored. The GFS is currently
an outlier of the deterministic models with a colder and wetter
solution for western and central ND. Once this system passes by,
upper level ridging builds over the region with a warm-up towards
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys continue at kMOT and MVFR cigs at KISN should
be improving shortly. Otherwise vfr conditions at remaining taf
sites this afternoon into this evening. Tonight MVFR-IFR
conditions return at KMOT and possibly KISN. Late tonight patchy
fog may also spread into KDIK, KBIS and KJMS, but not as confident
in these areas so left out of these TAFs for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH


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