Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN BUT A BIT DRYER SOUTHWEST
TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY NOON PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. SEEING SOME MIXED PRECIP AT MILES CITY MONTANA AND THIS
SUGGESTS WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP ADVISORY THERE THROUGH NOON TO
EVALUATE TRENDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 10 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS...GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR TO IFR KISN-KMOT AFTER 18Z.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE LATE AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







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