Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 252133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MVFR TO LOW VFR
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...WAA



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