Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011431
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A HOT DAY EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS
SUPPORTED BY THE 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHERE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AREA OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IN WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES...ENDING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A VERY WARM DAY TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE STATE...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WARM AND DRY AIR WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.

EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED...LIKELY ALONG A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHIFTING EAST TO THE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUING
EAST OUT OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ADIABATIC LINK FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND H700 THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND RAISED WINDS A BIT AS WELL
FROM GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW OF THE
UPPER JET - WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S
AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH
SO THAT TEMPS DO NOT DROP INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA
FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTERLY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KJMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO H700 THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MIXING WINDS ALOFT TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES WITH MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.

EXPECT THAT GRASSLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE CURING QUICKLY.
THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM LAND MANAGERS INDICATED THAT SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO REACH CRITICAL FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AT SOME POINT. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG MENTION FOR WILLISTON TO HETTINGER AND
WESTWARD...BUT UNDERSTAND THAT GRASSLANDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED
CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.

COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV


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