Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Area of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across the James River
Valley with light, isolated to scattered showers southwest into
portions of south central ND. Precipitation will continue to wane
and push east as a mid/upper level trough scoots into eastern ND
by 12z Wednesday. Some patchy fog possible given locally heavier
rainfall in spots, however, soundings also suggest northwest winds
and around 10 mph and possibly remaining unstable enough per omega
on BUFKIT soundings. Fog should be limited in coverage at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A congealing line of strong to severe thunderstorms across the US
Highway 83 corridor as of 02 UTC between Bismarck/Mandan and
Garrison is expected to continue to propagate east, sustained by
the low level jet and steep mid level lapse rates. Elevated MUCAPE
around 2000 j/kg and effective deep layer shear around 30-35kts
supports a continued severe threat downstream. Given the
congealing mode, the primary threat will be damaging winds to
around 50-55kts, with a lesser hail threat.

UPDATE Issued at 525 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Widespread mid to upper level cloud cover across western and
central North Dakota as of 2230 UTC continues to limit surface
based heating and cap erosion along the occluding warm front
between US Highways 83 and 85. The most likely scenario is for the
shortwave entering far northwest South Dakota to propagate into
south central North Dakota around 00-01 UTC. Some cooling aloft
with this feature and associated lift is expected to erode the
cap. While MUCAPE values around 2000-2500 j/kg are forecast to be
in place across central North Dakota with steep mid level lapse
rates, weak effective deep layer shear continues to be a limiting
factor for potential storm organization and associated threat
magnitude. Deep layer shear will be stronger and more favorable
for supercells near the South Dakota border. As the low level jet
increases this evening, upscale growth into a possible convective
complex into the James River Valley is possible.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The focus in the short term will be the threat for severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. At 2 PM CDT a
warm front extended through southwest North Dakota followed by a
cold front just entering the far west. This will create a narrow
band of favorable instability and shear across South Central into
Southeast North Dakota this evening. The latest RAP soundings
show the CAP breaking around 6-7 PM over central North Dakota with
the majority of convection moving east of the James River Valley
after 3 or 4 am CDT. Do not see much more than marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms as the latest sounding analogues show
marginal large hail with a low threat for tornadoes. Also the 15Z
SREF focuses the larger threat south of the state tonight. However
will keep the mention of large hail and damaging winds going from
late afternoon through early morning as the threat definitely

On Wednesday the cold front will have moved through the region and
showers will be ending by noon east. Cooler and dryer air will
be in place. Minimum relative humidity will still fall into the
lower 20s southwest but the gusty winds will have moved east by

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

In the extended the global models still bring a closed upper low
across North Dakota Thursday and Friday exiting the region
Saturday. This will bring instability showers and isolated
thunderstorms with the the best chances for showers north and
east. This will also herald a cool start to July with high
temperatures Saturday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warmer weather
will arrive early next week and by the Fourth highs will return to
the 80s to lower 90s. The best chance for showers will be
Thursday night and Friday with the passage of the upper low
followed by warm and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday, the
Fourth Of July.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Thunderstorms begin the Taf period at KJMS, and will exit the
terminal by 07z. A vcsh was included at KDIK until 08z Wednesday.
Will still maintain a vcsh from 07z-09z. Otherwise vfr cigs/vsbys
at all other terminals through the period.




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