Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 290249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.