Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 201735
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Light showers continue moving east across southwestern and south
central ND. The showers are associated with a cluster of shortwave
energy impulses moving west to east in the upper level flow. Latest
iterations of short term models suggest showers lingering through
early afternoon in the southwest, and at least mid-afternoon in the
south central. Thus adjusted chances of showers to reflect this.

Also lowered max temps across southern ND due to lingering showers
and cloud cover.

UPDATE Issued at 854 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Some light showers continue to move through southwestern North
Dakota, which continue to push east. Therefore, have continued low
precipitation chances along the south through mid-afternoon. Have
also adjusted cloud cover up a bit. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Updated the chances for showers with the HRRR time lag ensemble
and adjusted with knowledge of the current conditions. This
gave slight chance of showers along and south of I94 through
early afternoon. Morning lows may tough the upper 30s in Burke
county. otherwise current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Today, a cold front will continue to slide east and slowly south
across the region leaving a weak baroclinic zone across southern
North Dakota. This zone will be the focus for widely scattered
showers this morning and afternoon, as well as some showers
tonight. Areas of smoke, reinforced with the airmass behind the
front will again remain across central and southern North Dakota.
Dry conditions remain across the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The extended forecast begins Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with short wave energy currently moving
onshore in the Pacific northwest. This feature will move
southeast into the Northern Plains making viewing the eclipse from
much of North Dakota challenging with mostly cloudy skies in the
offing. Cant say for sure but looks like a better chance for
clouds than clear skies across the south. Parts of the west may
see some clearing by late morning though.

Global models agree the main weather feature impacting North
Dakota will be the development of an h500 ridge across the
northwest into the north central CONUS Tuesday through Thursday.
This will suppress convection and leave the region dry with
normal to slightly below normal temperatures mostly in the 70s
but lower 80s possible west. The next chance for thunderstorms
will be Friday into Saturday as the next upper low nudges the
ridge east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Isolated/scattered light showers will continue over portions of
southwest and south central North Dakota early this afternoon, but
little if any visibility restriction is expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.