Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
704 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Quick update to remove pops from eastern portions of our CWA, per
coordination with WFO FGF.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Other than temperatures running a little warmer than forecast for
portions of northern and western ND, the forecast is on track with
no other changes made.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the
midwest into the central plains while low remains to the lee of
the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from
the central Rockies into the western Canadian plains with
northwest flow over our area. Potent short wave sliding through
Manitoba has been nudging into eastern North Dakota, but so far
only some clouds have formed over our area as precipitation has
held to the east.

For tonight, short wave will continue to slide
south/southeasterly. A stray weak shower could nudge some far
eastern locations, but overall the only concern will be an
increase in cloud cover later tonight.

On Thursday, besides some clouds passing through eastern
locations, a mainly quiet day is on tap as upper ridge axis passes

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Behind the ridge axis, potent short wave attempts to close off as
it slides into the plains. This will interact with modest
instability to bring shower/thunderstorm chances across the area
as it moves east on Friday. Right now not thinking much of severe
chances, but the potential is there for some isolated severe
activity with the instability in place, particularly over southern

Shower chances linger into Saturday as a secondary wave pushes
through the area, which may also lead to a few thunderstorms.
Mainly dry conditions will follow into early next week as upper
ridge rebuilds over the western United States.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Main concern is possibility of lower cigs developing overnight
into Thursday morning, particularly at KMOT and KJMS locations.
Current forecast only brings KJMS into IFR conditions from 14z to
17z. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.




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