Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281457
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
857 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

FOLLOWING A WEAK FEATURE ON SATELLITE THAT CORRESPONDS WITH RADAR
SNOW AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE RELATED
TO A H700 MB WIND MAX THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO TRIMMED POPS UPSTREAM IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE AT BISMARCK WHERE POPS TRIMMED TO 20. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SNOW WILL BECOME THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15 UTC...PER HIRES ARW AND NMM
RUNS. UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIGID TEMPERATURES SPILLING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP STEADILY
AS SOON AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. REGION OF ENHANCED OVERRUNNING FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
TO EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF MONTANA.

INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AS WE ARE
ACCUMULATING HERE AT THE AIRPORT AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR A FEW HOURS. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SAG SOUTH
WITH THE ENHANCED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TIME THROUGH THIS
MORNING. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND
IF IT CAN CONTINUE.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTH AND ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST FROM MONTANA INTO MY SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TWO INCHES OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FOUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SNOW
END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS COLDER AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CAA WILL COMBINE WITH
CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW
ZERO...NEARING 20 BELOW FAR NORTH. PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND ALLOWING
WIND CHILLS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST.
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY SPOT ON SO NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE OTHER THAN TO MODIFY WORDING
A BIT TO KEEP IT CONSISTENT WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL TUESDAY.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN LINE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CALLS FOR
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DIRECT ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES AND
OMEGA FIELDS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LAST FOUR
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNTS.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
AIR MASS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN OUT OF ALBERTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

BAND OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TERMINALS AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-042-045>048-
050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH






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