Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON WITH THE FORECAST PRESSURE
SURGE OF 4 MB/3 HR UPSTREAM A BIT IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SO
FAR LITTLE SNOW SEEN ON RADARS SO THIS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
SYSTEM UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WINDS...SO FAR WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY BEGIN AS SCHEDULED AT
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH OUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST IN CASE A
FLAKE OR TWO GETS SQUEEZED OUT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GRADIENT
FLOW APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AROUND 40 KNOT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...THINK WIND GUSTS COULD GET UP TO 45 MPH. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...DO NOT THINK ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY
TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE AGE OF THE
SNOWPACK...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE ONE-HALF MILE
THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...UP TO
ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER DICKEY COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND NEW SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS IN DICKEY COUNTY. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR DICKEY COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MENTION IT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTERWARDS A WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES COUPLE WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT
WIND/WINTER HEADLINES IN PLACE.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION END OF THIS WEEK IF ANY EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE
WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 6 PM CST...COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WILL SWEEP THOUGH THE REGION BY 12Z BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS
25 TO 35KTS. POST FRONTAL BAND OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 HUNDRED AGL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. LACK OF
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL JUSTIFY ONLY SPOTTY REDUCTIONS TO 5
MILES IN BLOWING SNOW KMOT-KJMS AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR AFTER 12Z...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>046.

WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA





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