Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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