Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD





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