Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
531 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The latest satellite imagery shows a narrow wedge of clearing
from northwest through south central ND, essentially separating
and containing the stratus into two distinct areas, southwest and
east central ND. High resolution models show decreasing clouds
this morning, with east central ND (Rolla to Jamestown)
maintaining the clouds into the afternoon under a northerly flow.
Cirrus/high clouds in north central Montana will begin to stream
into western ND this morning. This represents the leading
edge/beginning of warm air advection upstream, which will shift
into and increase across western/central ND tonight. Adjusted sky
grids based on current satellite and forecast clouds from the
HRRR/RAP13/GFSLamp guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Weather highlights include stratus eroding today for all but the
east central, along with colder temperatures. Warm air advection
takes control tonight with increasing clouds.

Surface cold front now well into South Dakota, with the associated
shortwave trough aloft located from southeastern Manitoba through
the central Dakotas per latest water vapor imagery loop. Gusty
northwest winds to around 30 mph will diminish through the morning.

The latest GOES16 microphysics RGB imagery along with surface
observations indicates a swath of stratus covering all of western
and central ND; although there are temporary breaks northwest
into south central ND. The high resolution models suggest the
stratus will linger through 15z, then begin to retreat southwest
to northeast, but not totally clearing the Turtle Mountains south
into the northern James River Valley this afternoon. This seems
plausible, given the 925mb northwest winds advecting the stratus
into the forecast area through mid morning, then veering to the
east and southeast during the afternoon for all but the east
central locations. With the winds remaining northerly from the
Turtle Mountains south into the northern James River Valley,
stratus will continue to advect in from Manitoba. Thus, increasing
sunshine southwest to northeast today, with clouds lingering
across east central ND. Much colder today with highs in the mid
teens north, to mid 30s far southwest.

For tonight, a transitory mid level ridge will shift across
western and central North Dakota, with low level warm air
advection taking control. BUFKIT soundings a nice veering wind
profile with height/warm air advection, with increasing surface
southeasterly winds below the inversion, transitioning to south
and southwest winds above the inversion. Expect surface winds to
increase to between 15 and 25 mph after midnight. Increasing high
clouds with this pattern but continued dry. Overnight lows will
range from 10F in the Turtle Mountains to 25F in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A surface warm front makes it through central ND during the day,
with a cold front entering into northwest ND late in the afternoon.
High temperatures will rebound with 30F in the Turtle Mountains
to lower 50s southwest. The cold front will then move across
western and central ND Thursday night, with a narrow band of
precipitation forecast to stretch mainly from western into north
central ND. Soundings show a warm layer aloft, and although this
will shrink overnight, it will initially warm and be deep enough
in the evening to result in a wintry mix. Varying surface temperatures
along and just behind the front will also come into play with the
exact precipitation type. However, the precipitation should be
brief and not widespread as mentioned above. Friday will be cooler
behind the front, with highs in the upper 20s north to lower 40s
southwest. The colder air will arrive Friday night through Saturday,
as an Alberta clipper zips through. Brisk northwest winds (15 to
30 mph) will develop Friday night as the clipper sweeps across. No
precipitation expected with this clipper, but cold air with strong
northwest flow aloft Saturday will result in highs from the mid
and upper teens north to mid 30s southwest.

Generally dry Sunday through Tuesday, with warm air advection
returning Sunday and Monday. Highs temperatures will rebound back
into the 30s and 40s. Another brief cooldown is forecast either
Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on the timing, which differs in
the GFS/ECMWF solutions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Will keep KISN/KMOT/KBIS predominantly vfr, with a tempo mention
to mvfr cigs until 15z. Otherwise, KDIK/KJMS will remain in mvfr
status until 15z KDIK/19z KJMS. Low level northwesterly winds will
diminish through the morning, then become northeast to easterly
later this afternoon, before southeasterly winds take control
tonight. In doing so, mvfr cigs will be drawn toward KMOT/KJMS due
to the northeast and easterly flow by 00z Thursday. Mvfr cigs are
expected to return to KJMS by 00z Thursday, with KMOT on the
fringes of stratus after 00z Thursday.




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