Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The going forecast is on track and minimal changes were made with
this update. Visible satellite and radar imagery shows weak
convection developing from southeast MT into northwest SD and
southwest ND as of 1745 UTC in advance of a weak shortwave trough.
Recent convection-allowing guidance, including the last several
HRRR runs and the 12 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW, supports weak showers and
thunderstorms in southwest ND this afternoon and into the early
evening, with a slow east-northeast propagation to the cells.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

We increased high temperatures by 1-3 F today using recent bias-
corrected MOS guidance. That move was in respect to observed
temperatures which are running a bit ahead of the forecast curve
this morning, and the expectation of seasonably deep mixing with
mean westerly low-level flow this afternoon. Otherwise, only minor
changes were made to the remainder of the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC, the
forecast remains on track with no changes required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A mostly sunny Sunday after morning fog highlights the short term
forecast.

In a similar setup to the past couple of mornings, areas of fog
will continue to develop across much of western and central North
Dakota towards sunrise this morning, burning off by 14 UTC.
Thereafter, a mostly sunny Sunday is expected as a dry airmass is
advected into the area in the wake of the Saturday disturbance.
Isolated thunderstorms developing across southeast Montana this
afternoon may survive into southwest and far south central North
Dakota this evening and into the tonight with a modest low level
jet. Given limited moisture, severe weather is not expected.
Overall, a blend of the 00 UTC guidance suites were favored for
all fields.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm potential on Memorial Day highlights the extended
forecast.

The trend for widespread thunderstorms on Memorial Day Monday
continues amongst the 00 UTC guidance suites. An upper level wave
across the Pacific Northwest today is forecast to propagate into
eastern Montana and close off on Monday. Low level moisture
transport ahead of this system is expected to yield dew points in
the mid to upper 50s across the southwest and south central. SPC
in their Day 2 Convective Outlook has maintained a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for these areas, and has shrunk the
already small slight risk that was highlighted across southern
North Dakota. This is plausible given greater moisture/instability
focused across South Dakota and possible cloud cover impacts from
convection that is expected to already be ongoing Monday morning
across eastern Montana. Never the less, given the strength of the
wave, widespread thunderstorms are favored Monday afternoon and
evening across the area. WPC has maintained in their QPF forecast
the potential for one to two inches across the northwest and far
north central into Tuesday associated with the pivot point and
wrap around moisture as the upper level low moves into central
North Dakota on Tuesday. A stretch of less active weather is
possible mid to late next week as a possible intermountain west
upper level ridge is favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected today with mainly a VFR cumulus field
developing. There is a small chance of afternoon/evening showers
or thunderstorms in the far southwest, but chances too small to
even mention in KDIK taf yet. Late tonight and after 12z
Monday...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop...becoming widespread around/after 18z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...PJA
LONG TERM...PJA
AVIATION...JV



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