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000
FXUS63 KBIS 141957
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND THE RAP MODEL SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STILL BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...BELIEVE ITS REASONABLE
FOR ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION .
WILL GO DRY FOR SATURDAY IN GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH AND
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE IN CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR
SUNDAY...A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL HIGHS NEAR 80. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN REGARDS
TO THE PROPAGATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ON
SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND HOW FAR EAST THE
LOW CAN PROPAGATE TO TURN TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AT 2 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN HAD AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT
KJMS/KISN. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA