Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191930
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD





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