Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BROKEN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOME OF THE CLOUDS.

FOR THE UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED FLURRIES EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATUS SPREADS EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT MOST OBSERVATION
SITES UNDER THE BROKEN STRATUS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO TRAVERSE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS APPEARING ON
RADAR...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE
GROUND WITH CLOUD HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A WEST...DOWNSLOPING WIND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE BARE GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...THE LACK OF
FALLING SNOW AND THE BEST ISALLOBARIC PUSH BEING LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE AREA DOES PLACE A LIMIT ON THE OVERALL THREAT. WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AREA WIDE...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ALBEIT MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
ONWARDS...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL RECOVERY TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
EMBEDDED FLURRIES SHOULD ONLY BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINAL
AERODROMES...IF AT ALL. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SAID POSSIBILITY
WITH A VCSH IN THE AFFECTED TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM




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