Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE
TURNING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME WIDE
VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF FIELDS...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING STILL
FAVORS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...AMOUNTS EXPECTED DO NOT WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS






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