Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Added fog to northwest North Dakota for late tonight into early
Saturday morning with this update. As low pressure across western
North Dakota into central South Dakota this evening propagates
east through the night, low level moisture in southern Canada will
wrap around behind the low, with stratus spreading across much of
the area late tonight into Saturday morning. The best chances for
fog are favored across northwest North Dakota per the 20-22 UTC
HRRR/RAP/GLAMPMELD iterations. This is in with observed trends
across Canada.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A low pressure system continues to push west to east across the
northern plains. Short range models have handled the precipitation
well. Rain for the most part has stayed in the northern tier
counties of North Dakota. Chances for rain will diminish as the
system pushes further east tonight.

The previous few HRRR runs have shown the potential for some fog
to develop overnight in the northwest. However with minimal low
level moisture and the potential for cloud cover in the area have
held off on the mention of fog at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area late
Sunday. With the peak of the ridge in place over the northern
plains Monday, southerly flow will be breezy with gusts near 25
mph across central and western North Dakota.

A short wave and low pressure system looks to develop on Tuesday
over the central plains with some wrap around rain entering
eastern North Dakota Tuesday into early Wednesday. As of now the
ECMWF is slower and favors a more northern track of the central
plains low and is wetter than the GFS solution. Upper level
ridging again builds over the region behind these two waves,
bringing mild and mainly dry conditions through the remainder of
the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Low pressure across western North Dakota into central South Dakota
as of 00 UTC will move east through tonight. MVFR stratus across
southern Canada is expected to build across western and central
North Dakota tonight into Saturday morning. IFR fog is possible at




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