Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261752
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE BIS-JMS SO
USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON SHORE ACROSS
WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BECOME ONLY MAKE IT TO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH CENTRAL
AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SLOW AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LOOK
REASONABLE TODAY. SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (BIS-JMS) HAVE A MID LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE WEST
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF
MINOT MIXING LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND SO UPPED THE
WINDS VICINITY OF MINOT TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NO
FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. UPSTREAM...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES SEEN
OVER WESTERN MONTANA MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. REGIONAL RADAR
WAS INDICATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAS ALONG A SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM...THEN MAKE SOME HEADWAY THROUGH WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 AND 4KM
NAM CONUSNEST REFLECTIVITY`S ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERATING A
NARROW LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO MAKE IT ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT TO
GARRISON AND INTO HEBRON AND HETTINGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
INITIATES OVER EASTERN MONTANA ALONG WITH INCREASING 925MB-850MB
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. BEST CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER NORTHWEST
AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WHERE ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK TODAY/TONIGHT...THUS STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATER TONIGHT. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING/SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOTTER
TODAY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISSUE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE ENTIRE NWS BISMARCK FORECAST
AREA...MONDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.

ISSUE 2...BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...THEN WINDY EAST TO VERY WINDY
WEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE POSTED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...WEST.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH...DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...
BRINGS SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA FOR MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THAT FLOW. THEY MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LONG WAVE PUSHES
EAST. WITH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL BE
DRY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH STORM CHANCES THERE NOT INCREASING
UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
THIS...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTS 70+ DEW POINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...
INCREASING INSTABILITY...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER RESULTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEST...AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT GRADIENT
RESULTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ALONG WITH
THIS IS A NEARLY 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM MONDAY HIGHS TO
TUESDAY HIGHS OVER THE WILLISTON AREA.

DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN WEST OF A MINOT TO
DICKINSON LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TOME TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN TAFS. WILL KEEP VCNTY FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT. THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA



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