Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 042344
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EVEN IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY RECENTLY AS TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK UP INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE LIKE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. THUS
CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AROUND GLASGOW AND
FARTHER WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/SKY COVER AND TO FRESHEN LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE FAR EASTERN
CWA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR EASTERN STUTSMAN INTO
LAMOURE/DICKEY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR STRATUS IS STILL HANGING ON AROUND KMOT BUT HAS DISSIPATED
OVER KISN AND KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH


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