Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221716
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Some afternoon convective clouds are starting to develop over
north central North Dakota. Otherwise, a nice sunny day continues.

UPDATE Issued at 834 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Quiet weather continues. Only change for mid-morning update was to
add some high clouds over portions of the southwest and south
central for this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

No change for today other than for observed trends through 11 UTC
with surface high pressure across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Tranquil weather in the short term period. Northwesterly flow
aloft with an absence of any significant shortwave will result in
dry weather along with a mostly clear sky. A few mid/high clouds
within the northwest flow can be expected from time to time.
Surface high pressure in southern Saskatchewan will slide into
south central ND this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds (15 to 25
mph) can be expected in the eastern James River Valley with much
lighter winds/less than 10 mph farther west. Highs this afternoon
will range from 72F in the Turtle Mountains, to 82F in the southwest.

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently over
northern Saskatchewan. This will begin to slide southeast,
reaching Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba by 12z/7am CDT Wednesday. A
backdoor cold front is associated with this upper low and will
reside over southern Manitoba early Wednesday morning. Some
increase in mid level clouds expected over the Turtle Mountains
late tonight, otherwise expect mostly clear with lows 50F to 55F.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The upper low mentioned in the short term period will continue to
move southeast Wednesday, shifting into eastern North Dakota and
pushing the backdoor cold front mentioned above across and through
the far north central ND. A distinct/strong 850mb temperature
gradient results with +8C in the Turtle Mountains to +24C in southwest
ND by 00z Thursday/7PM CDT. Highs Wednesday will range from 70F
in Rolla, to 87F in Beach. Strongest large scale ascent resides in
southern Manitoba and into northeast/eastern North Dakota, which
results in continued dry conditions along with a mostly clear
across western and most of central ND. The GFS/ECMWF/SREF paint
some very light precipitation into various portions of the James
River Valley Wednesday. For now the gridded data is dry and will
go with that and revisit this with future model runs.

The upper flow begins a transition to southwesterly flow Thursday
into Friday. Dry and warmer Thursday as a mid/upper level ridge
axis crests across western/central ND. Highs in the mid 80s west,
to mid/upper 70s central. Low level southeasterly flow begins to
advect in moisture Thursday night and Friday, as a mid/upper level
shortwave shifts through. This results in a chance for showers
Thursday night in the far west, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms western and central ND Friday through
Friday night. Chances for rainshowers and thunderstorms linger
over the James River Valley Saturday. Upper level ridging builds
over the western Conus this weekend, with a compensatory northwesterly
flow for western and central ND. Right now, it looks dry Sunday
and Monday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS



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