Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261129
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Overall the forecast is on track and blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC. Issued an SPS for dense fog across northwest North
Dakota this morning. With the sun already risen, visibility
should begin to improve for this areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Early this morning an upper level low continued to spin across
northeast Montana as a surface low and trough were centered
across the North Dakota/Canadian border. Along and north of the
trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus
and fog have developed. The HRRR indicates this fog and stratus
will continue this morning and scatter out by the afternoon. As
the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
North Dakota and spread eastward. Instability is forecast to be
much less than what we experienced on Wednesday. However, steep
lapse rates and moderate forcing could generate some stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe storms are anticipated,
but some small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out across
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Southwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains through
early next week. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A closed low is forecast to park right over North
Dakota by the middle of next week. This again will bring good
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Models are
having a hard time resolving individual waves, so specific timing
of thunderstorms remains challenging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

IFR/LIFR conditions in fog and stratus at KISN/KMOT/KJMS to begin
the 12Z TAF cycle will improve to VFR by mid to late this
morning. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will develop once
again across western and central North Dakota with daytime
heating. Scattered MVFR stratus decks are possible late tonight
across the area.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



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