Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 121316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
816 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WERE BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED IN EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 110KT JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A FRONT
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 18Z THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS OFF.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
WILL MONITOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z DATA...BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS JUST GRAZES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/PRECIPITATION AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS.
OVERALL GRIDDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN CHANGES ARE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO PUSH INTO WEST-
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT COVERAGE WITH BOTH OF THESE TO
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BACK EAST TO ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER...RESULTS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA...OVER SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
EXPAND INTO MY SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH 15Z AS THE UPPER
JET STREAK CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (DIVERGENCE ALOFT) OF THE UPPER JET WILL
SHIFT SOUTH MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND SO WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATER TODAY...A DEEP CYCLONE WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND THIS
FAVORED AREA AS WELL. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM
SHEAR...60KT TO 70KT...ACROSS MY NORTHEAST CORNER. WHILE CAPE
REMAINS WEAK RANGING BETWEEN 200 AND 600 J/KG...MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ON SUNDAY...DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION TOWARDS NRN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT HOW THEY HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GFS CONTINUES
TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY TRACK. COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

PRIMARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MANY LOCATIONS.
LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY DIVE BEFORE IT STARTS TO TAKE AN
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING
ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ACTIVE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF LOW.

BY TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY MODELS
SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

NMRS -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94 EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS THROUGH. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE THEN
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PATCHY FG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PTNS OF NW AND N CTRL ND...BRINGING LCL IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS





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