Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 231804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

DRY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO DECENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE SKY
COVER AND INCREASE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

OTHER THAN TO INCREASE HIGHS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES GIVEN
THE BIAS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO BE A BIT TOO COOL IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST HIGHS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WE WILL
BE IN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.

CURRENTLY...ONE IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGHS/CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVING NOW SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH NOW STRETCHED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ND INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BOTH SURFACE/GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.
HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA BY 10-11Z.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES NEUTRAL TODAY AS CAA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALREADY OCCURRING. A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOWS IN THE 20S TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
CLIPPER SET TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CONTINUED MILD LATE JANUARY TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BEFORE A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE PLACED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COINCIDENT WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WITH RATHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND WEST. GIVEN HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40S WEST...AND 30S CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A -RASN MIX MIGHT DEVELOP OVER
KJMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM



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