Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010904
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
EUROPEAN MISSING FROM THE MODEL SUITE TODAY SO BLEND OF GFS/NAM
USED. THIS MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEVADA
INTO IDAHO WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND FLATTENING THE H500 RIDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE FROM BISMARCK AND MINOT EAST DURING MOST OF THE DAY, EVEN
DICKINSON SHOWS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION TODAY. THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...THEN
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT WHEN THE ID/NV
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT. ALSO THE CAP ERODES THIS EVENING CENTRAL
SECTIONS. PER SPC DISCUSSION ADDED PRIMARILY AIL AS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN FOLLOWS WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER AND PERIODS OF QUIET.

ONGOING CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A
RAIN COOLED AIR ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH NORTHEAST. TOOK OUT SEVERE WORDING FOR 12-18Z
TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG A
SFC TROUGH AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE SET TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING.
MUCAPE NEARING 3K J/KG ACROSS MY SOUTH AND NEAR 1000 ACROSS MY
NORTH. 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROJECTED ANYWHERE FROM 30-40KTS. SLIGHT
RISK AREA NOW ENCOMPASSES PRETTY MUCH MY ENTIRE AREA...WITH AN
ELEVATED THREAT/ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS PUT THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE IN ALL PRODUCTS.

AS THIS WAVE PUSHES OFF INTO CANADA...THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH A STABLE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED DAYTIME HIGHS
WED AND DRASTICALLY CUT DOWN ON POPS BOTH WED AND WED NIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THEREAFTER A QUASI-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED WITH AN OCCASIONAL
MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH EACH BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM KDIK-
KISN- KMOT AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE VFR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



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