Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Latest radar and satellite analysis shows a band of flurries
tracking east across central ND, with stratus across most of the
CWA except for a few breaks over the south central and clearing
skies in the far west. Tough forecast tonight as southerly flow
and warm advection continue to spread west to east across the
forecast area. Most model guidance is showing an erosion of lower
RH from west to east overnight, thus clearing skies. However, this
may allow for the development of fog, especially across the south
central, as noted by the last few iterations of the HRRR. Not real
confident about this right now and will continue to monitor for
development south of the forecast area this evening. Temperatures
may drop over clearing areas west this evening, but exactly how
far remains unclear. East of the Highway 83 corridor looks to
remain cloudy for at least through the evening, and into the
overnight hours over the James River Valley. current forecast has
temperatures dropping quickly in the teens this evening. Not
confident about this either. For now will blend our current
temperatures with a multi-model blend of short term guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

For the near term, now through 00z Saturday, will continue with a
mention of isolated flurries on the leading edge of warm air
advection. Weak returns on radar continue to approach and will
move through south central ND late this afternoon.

Overall, the latest visible satellite imagery loop continues to
advertise cloudy conditions with a couple holes briefly showing up.
Trend overnight will be for some partial clearing in south central
with the HRRR/RAP13 both indicating areas of fog developing around
06z Saturday and continuing into mid Saturday morning. Surface map
indicates 3hr pressure falls getting established over southeast
Alberta into northcentral MT. This is in advance of a surface warm
front and upper shortwave slated to slide through Saturday into
Saturday night. Isentropic lift/upglide per 290K pressure surface
will result in a band of light snow moving into western ND by mid
to late Saturday morning, then shifting into central ND by late
afternoon into the early evening. Snowfall amounts will be minor,
ranging from around one tenth of an inch west and central to around
one half inch across the far northwest and north central through 00z
Sunday. Highs on Saturday around 30F for all but the west where
lower 30s will occur as warm air advection completely pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Dry Sunday with some sunshine and highs in the upper 20s north to
lower 30s south and west. Active weather initiates Sunday night
with an approaching strong cold front. This front will push from
northwest to southeast Monday with widespread light snow and
increasing northwest winds. Expecting snow and patchy blowing snow
at this time. Snowfall accumulations look probable across western
and central ND, but models are all over the place on where the
highest amounts will occur. This can be refined in future forecasts.
Following the snow will be the first surge of arctic air this
season, heralding in wind chills as low as 25 below zero Tuesday
through Thursday. We messaged this earlier in a Special Weather
Statement, and now in the Hazardous Weather Outlook to give a
heads up to the public that frost bite can occur to exposed skin
in as little as 30 minutes.

A backdoor or secondary cold front will shift through Wednesday
into Wednesday night delivering more wind very cold air for Thursday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF keep an active period going beyond the extended
with periodic warm air advection snow events which should continue
through next weekend.

High temperatures during the arctic cold event, Tuesday through
Thursday will feature high temperatures in the lower single
digits above zero, with lows in the single digits below zero.
Friday remains very cold as well for all but the far southwest
where mid teens begin to emerge.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Generally MVFR ceilings this evening across central ND sites of
KBIS KMOT and KJMS, although periods of vfr possible 00-02 UTC at
KBIS. KISN and KDIK are on the western fringe of a large band of
stratus clouds and are expected to clear out this evening. KBIS
and KMOT expected to clear late tonight and KJMS Saturday morning.
Will keep a mention of fog at KBIS late tonight. Another band of
MVFR ceilings and light snow will move west to east during the day




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