Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Isolated showers showing up over south central Saskatchewan into
northeast Montana, looking to be a few hours away from northwest
ND. Pushed back the arrival of showers and limited it to isolated
nature through 12 UTC. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Only change for late-evening update was to increase cloud cover over
the James River Valley as low clouds are starting to try and
spread back to the north, in line with latest HRRR guidance.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Low clouds over the James River Valley continue to dissipate while
higher clouds push in over an upper level ridge to the west. Weak
wave noted in the ridge pushes over the area tonight which may be
able to squeeze out a few light showers over northern locations.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Tonight, low clouds will move into the region again as another
upper level wave moves across North Dakota. The majority of
locations should remain dry. However, scattered light rain is
possible across far northern North Dakota where the best upper
level support and lift will be located.

Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 30s and southerly winds
will shift out of the northwest.

During the day Friday a cold front will swing through North
Dakota. Behind the front, cold air advection and a westerly mixing
wind component will likely produce a breezy day. Winds 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph seem likely. Even though cold air
advection will be taking place, compressional warming, plenty of
sunshine and downsloping winds will boost temperatures into the

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Another wave moves through on Saturday. This time the surface low
is a bit deeper and focused across North Dakota. However, moisture
will be limited and precipitation chances should be confined to
far northern North Dakota once again. The main impact with this
system will likely once again be winds. Windy conditions are
possible Saturday evening as the trough moves through. A nice
pressure rise of 6 mb/3hour combined with a westerly downsloping
component and steep lapse rates could produce winds around 30 to
40 mph. However, models differ on the timing of the trough and
pressure rises. Some models don`t move the pressure bubble through
until after dark, limiting mixing of stronger winds.

Otherwise, an upper level ridge moves into the Northern Plains.
This will likely keep the weather rather quiet and mild through
early next week. The ridge begins to break down by next week and
several waves may impact the region, bringing chances for
precipitation back to North Dakota.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Low pressure over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan early this morning
will move east into Manitoba Friday afternoon. A cold front
extending south from the low is expected to sweep eastward across ND
today...entering western ND around 15-18z and reaching the James
River Valley by around 20-23z. South winds ahead of the front
becoming west at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots.

Areas of MVFR cigs remain over the James River Valley early this
morning with some MVFR fog possible through around 13-15z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected.




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