Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241117
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
617 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Current forecast on track with fog patches around Tioga,
Dickinson, Hettinger, Bismarck, and just east of Oakes.

Satellite shows low clouds advancing to the southwest, toward
north Dakota, out of the surface high in Manitoba.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Short term issues include icy spots on roads and sidewalks and
patchy fog this morning.

In areas that had rain Thursday evening that water did not dry. As
temperatures fell to and below freezing overnight the water froze.

Patches of fog formed overnight in the moist air behind the rain
bands and in the clearing. Drier air in the form of lower dew
points did work in from Manitoba. For that reason the fog was
patchy. Even in areas that had fog that drier air was keeping at
least some spread in temperature / dew point and so the fog was
not dense, at least not as of this writing.

Have issued a special weather statement for the icy spots and the
fog and will reissue for freshness soon.

Will expect the sun to work its magic on both the icy patches and
the fog as the morning wears on.

With high pressure to the north that ridging works in today with
subsidence for some sunshine and then a partly cloudy sky tonight.
This while low pressure and its warm front approach from the west.
That means a wide range in high temperatures for today, with the
cool pool high holding temperatures back from Minot through Rugby,
and the warm front pushing the Montana Border counties well into
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Unsettled weather but with above seasonal temperatures highlight
the long range.

Synoptic scale models show a very progressive pattern with chances
for precipitation every other day or so in the fast flow. With
that said though the main jet dynamics are across the southern
part of the nation and the waves dig into the southern plains with
minimal impact on North Dakota. No significant precipitation is
expected from each wave, likely less than a quarter inch qpf,
coming as mixed precipiation at nighttime and rain during the
day. This with lows 25 to 35 and highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

In areas that had rain last evening that water did not dry but
rather froze overnight as temperatures fell below freezing. Expect
icy patches on runways especially at KBIS and KJMS until 24/15z.

Patchy fog formed overnight in the wake of the clearing sky behind
the rain bands. Expect patchy fog with MVFR visibilities and
possibly MVFR ceilings, improving to VFR by 24/17z.

After 24/17z VFR flying weather.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Lake Darling Dam upstream of Minot increased discharges to 1200
cubic feet per second on Thursday, and this has resulted in
Souris River rises between the dam and Minot. The Souris at
Foxholm went into flood at midnight when the level crossed the
definition of minor flood there, 1573.0 feet. As of this writing
the level was 1573.08 feet. Additional increases in the amount of
water being released at the dam are expected in the coming days.

Go to www.weather.gov/bis and click on the "Rivers and Lakes"
tab to see a hydrograph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM
HYDROLOGY...JPM



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