Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 292348
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
648 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Moderate north to northwest surface and upper level flow continues
around a persistent upper level low over the northern Great Lakes
region into southern Canada.

Winds will diminish this evening, more quickly in the west where
they will become light during the overnight hours. This will lead
to good radiational cooling with clearing skies. No changes
anticipated at this time to the current Frost Advisory.

Over central North Dakota, skies will gradually clear from west to
east, but it will likely remain mostly cloudy over eastern
portions of central ND through the night. Late tonight into early
Tuesday another lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low
could push cloud shield back farther west toward Minot and
Bismarck with considerable clouds for at least a portion of
Tuesday morning before clearing out in the afternoon.

A few sprinkles may fall this evening central and through the
night over eastern portions of central ND, but no measurable
precipitation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Frost tonight highlights the short term forecast.

Issued a Frost Advisory for western and far south central North
Dakota for tonight into Tuesday morning. Clear skies, light winds,
a cool start to the evening and dewpoints in the 30s support a
good setup for radiational cooling and the lower edge of the 12
UTC forecast guidance envelope across the west and far south
central. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if
not a bit cooler, with widespread frost.

Tuesday will be cool under continued cyclonic flow aloft with
highs the 60s. However, winds will be weaker compared to the
weekend, from the northwest at 15-25 mph, as surface high
pressure builds across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A warming trend into Thursday and thunderstorm chances Thursday
night into Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on cyclonic flow across
the Northern Plains potentially being replaced by shortwave
ridging by Thursday. This would favor a possible warm up with
highs in the 80s forecast for Thursday. There is some signal for
much needed precipitation on Thursday night into Saturday as the
upper level ridge breaks down. However, model spread in upper
level mass fields is high for this period, leading to low
confidence in details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Northwest surface flow will diminish this evening and increase
again late Tuesday morning and afternoon. However winds will not
be as strong Tuesday. Mainly around 15 mph in the afternoon with
some gusts to 25 mph in central ND. MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop at KJMS around 10 UTC and remain through the morning.
There will likely be a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KMOT around
12-16 UTC. Added a scattered layer of 3k ft ceilings at Bismarck
during the morning, but for now kept MVFR ceilings out of the
Bismarck TAF. VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period
at KISN and KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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