Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310802
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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