Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 210840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ



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