Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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813
FXUS63 KBIS 040848
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH



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