Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK





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