Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250546
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS...MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG A MID-UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. LATEST MODELS HAVE THIS AREA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS KEPT CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A BIT LONGER
UNTIL CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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