Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 211806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE MID MORNING UPDATE. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TRACK TO ENTER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. VIS AT KJMS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED SO NO HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MY EAST ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS
EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLES THE STRATUS RATHER WELL SO WAS
UTILIZED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE JAMES VALLEY.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...MODELS HINTING
RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST IN ADDITION TO
THE LIKELY/DEF POPS WEST. WE LOOK DRY ALOFT OVER MY EAST SO OPTED
TO MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE
BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND
BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA
OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. PREDOMINATELY
VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH





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