Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230746
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
246 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Main highlight is the fire weather concern in far southwest this
afternoon into early evening. Please see the fire weather discussion
below for further details.

A cold front continues to push into central North Dakota this
morning. The cold front is expected to shift into the southern
James River Valley 18z-21z today. Quite the density gradient with
dewpoints in the west mostly in the 30s, while along and east of
the cold front dewpoints are in the upper 60s. For the near term,
we have issued a special weather statement as patchy dense fog has
developed along the front. This has support from the experimental
HRRR for the next few hours. The nose of a strong low level 850mb
jet now just east of the James River Valley did prompt a severe
thunderstorm warning earlier in Foster County. But CAM`s not
suggesting the better chances for showers and thunderstorms this
morning into the afternoon will occur northwest through north
central. A closed upper low circulating over the southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan border with a leading 700mb shortwave trough
now over eastern Montana, is forecast to move across western and
central North Dakota today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
mostly across northwest into north central, and into the James
River Valley. Breezy and cooler conditions expected behind the
cold front today with highs in the upper 70s west to mid 80s in
the James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

As the closed upper low migrates into southeast Manitoba Thursday,
a secondary cold front will push through Wednesday morning with
another round of breezy northwest winds and much cooler air.
Chances for precipitation will be confined to the far north.
Although dry conditions elsewhere, cyclonic flow across western
and central ND should result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions
through the day. Highs mostly in the 60s, with lower 70s in the
southern James River Valley. Thursday will be dry and cool as well
with highs in the lower 70s with more sunshine as the flow
transitions from cyclonic to anticyclonic.

The next shortwave is forecast to push into southwest and south
central ND Friday/Friday night with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier weather behind the shortwave initiates Saturday
through Sunday, with low end chances for more precipitation Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cold front was now east of KISN/KDIK continues to move towards
KMOT/KBIS and will shift through around 12z Tuesday. Frontal
passage at KJMS will occur between 18z and 21z Tuesday, with low
level wind shear through 13z Tuesday at KJMS. Possible fog/vcfg at
KMOT between 09z-15z Tuesday followed by vcsh through early
afternoon. Rest of the terminals will be dry with vfr cigs/vsbys
but gusty northwest winds 15ktG25kt through 00z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A fire weather watch continues across far southwest North Dakota
this afternoon into early evening. A decision as to whether or
not to upgrade the current fire weather watch to a red flag
warning or possibly cancel it will be decided closer to 6AM CDT
Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, along with
minimum relative humidities around 20 percent and dry fuels, may
result in near critical fire weather conditions. If the fire
danger index forecast for today reaches the High category in the
far southwest, then expectations are that a Red Flag Warning will
be issued.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NDZ031-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS/NH
FIRE WEATHER...KS



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