Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220906
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
406 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Current surface analysis places high over the central plains,
while to the north a cold front is lined up along the
international border. Upper level analysis places weak high over
South Dakota with ridge over the western United States.

For today...main focus will be aforementioned cold front which
will gradually settle through northern North Dakota, pushing into
central portions of the state late afternoon into the evening.
Notable temperature gradient expected across the area with far
northern areas topping out in the 40s, while much of the remainder
of the area will see the 60s. Scattered rain showers will
eventually develop along and behind the front, with some snow
developing later tonight as cooler air works in. Greatest chance
for measurable snowfall remains generally along and to the north
of Highway 2.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front continues to droop into the area and takes on more of a
northwest to southeast orientation as cold air backs in. During
the day into the evening precipitation chances remain towards the
north near right entrance region of a passing jet streak, though
this spreads southward overnight as a shortwave approaches from
the west and a surface low starts deepening over South Dakota.
With cooler air pulling into the system, a conversion towards
snow possible late.

On Monday widespread precipitation chances continue as shortwave
meanders easterly as surface low shifts towards Minnesota, with
chances decreasing in the afternoon/evening with the departure of
the system. Temperatures remain cool, with highs in the 40s over
most locations.

An unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast
period bringing occasional precipitation chances along with below
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight and early morning
hours. Around 15z a cold front will begin pushing southward across
the region. As it does MVFR CIGS will likely accompany it. These
lower CIGS will impact KISN/KMOT...with lower confidence at the
southern terminals.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ



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