Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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427
FXUS63 KBIS 261749
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1149 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Baroclinic zone/stationary front aligned from eastern Montana into
southwest ND and snaking into northern SD late this morning.
Surface map shows a weak surface low pressure in eastern Montana
and this is captured by the RAP/NAM/GFS. Pockets of light snow
and flurries continue across western ND and eastern MT, although
nothing significant as amounts have ranged between a Trace and
0.01 thus far. As the low moves along the boundary this afternoon,
expect a continuation of flurries or a brief period of light snow
mainly southwest into south central. With the surface low
shifting into northern SD by 06z Monday, expect flurries to
diminish this evening. Overall the current forecast remains on
track.


UPDATE Issued at 918 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Weak wave nudging into western portions of the area is resulting
in a little snow being reported primarily over northwestern
locations. For mid-morning update have increased chances for snow
over this area. Will also continue some patchy fog over north
central North Dakota with Rugby and Harvey reporting reduced
visibility.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Very cold across the snow covered ground in north central North
Dakota this morning where clear skies overnight allowed
temperatures to fall to near 10 below in places.

Widely scattered snow showers/flurries showing up on radar across
the south central. Will add flurries for a few hours across
Grant, Morton, Sioux and portions of Emmons counties. Looks like
the fog is ending northwest as the surface high is exiting and
upslope flow diminishes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

At 3 am CST a surface high pressure area was centered near
Carrington North Dakota and will drift southeast today. The high
was partially clearing skies and has allowed temperatures to fall
to near 10 below across the north central this morning. Across the
west clouds and scattered areas of fog have formed in weak upslope
flow associated with the high.

During the day tonight the high will move east and another in a
series of weak low pressure systems will move across the state.
This will spread a chance for light snow to the west and central
again later today and tonight. The snow amounts will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The extended forecast will feature an active but rather weak
weather pattern with more weather systems moving through a
generally long wave trough pattern over the central CONUS. The
forecast features an almost daily chance of light snow through the
period but with light amounts. Temperatures will be near or a bit
below normal through the end of the week followed by the
beginnings of a warmup toward the end of the week as the h500
flow transitions from a mean longwave trough to a more progressing
westerly flow. This usually has the potential to bring a more
Chinook type flow to western North Dakota and by Friday and
Saturday highs across the southwest will be n the lower 40s with
30s elsewhere.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Surface high pressure across Manitoba will move southeast today.
Surface low pressure across southwest Saskatchewan will also
track southeast. MVFR conditions due to clouds will be prevalent
from KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KJMS with VFR expected at KMOT.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Some occasional light snow over portions of western and central
North Dakota may lead to localized MVFR ceiling and visibility.
Ceilings will gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning,
with many locations reduced to IFR conditions Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS



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