Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 272026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE  ALLOWING
GUIDANCE....NAMELY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT GIVEN THEIR GOOD HANDLING OF THE EVENT THUS FAR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ARCHING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER FORCING...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THIS EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 09-11 UTC.

FOR THURSDAY...SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR MARGINAL THREAT AREA IN THE
DAY TWO OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. THUS...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A COOL FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...A COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND POTENTIAL FROST. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COMMENCES SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT...A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES WERE USED
FOR MOST FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL TERMINALS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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