Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 151138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST SOUTH
OF NORTH DAKOTA AT 07Z. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S...EVEN A COUPLE 32 DEGREE READINGS IN CENTRAL
ND AT 7Z. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM.

OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT...REGION REMAINS DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DAYTIME  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLY HOLDING ON OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SPARK FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH...SO
THIS IS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...TO GET AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER.
LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE AS NEEDED.

WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. SIGNALS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO WE CANNOT DISCOUNT CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE ALLBLEND DOES PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BAND OF VFR CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT FROM KMOT TO KBIS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS





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