Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 282009
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ND CLEAR...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY. THUS ADDED A MENTION OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HETTINGER TO ROLLA.

STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THUS
POPS WERE HIGHEST...30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...AND THEN
OVER THE FAR SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE POPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
QUIET/QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND DEEP SURFACE
LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH DUE TO
THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH STILL LOOKS
COOL...BREEZY...AND WET AT TIMES. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS...WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT EMBEDDED ENERGY THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KBIS AND IFR CEILING AT KJMS. KBIS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 20 UTC. JMS LIFTING TO MVFR EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COULD
REMAIN MVFR THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE KJMS DOES CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MORNING. KBIS COULD ALSO SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
UNTIL FRONT PASSES...BUT LESS CERTAIN HERE SO LEFT IT VFR FOR NOW.
KDIK...KISN AND KMOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TURNING NORTH WITH CDFNT PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH








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