Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170621
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1221 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Surface high pressure was centered over south central ND. As this
high moves southeast tonight and Tuesday, we should see a more well-
established west/southwest wind flow across western and central
ND. Current forecast on track for tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Temperatures have dropped off a bit quicker the previously thought
so have adjusted overnight lows down a few degrees. Have also
spread out increased cloud cover throughout the area overnight as
high clouds continue to stream in.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Some high clouds continue to push through Saskatchewan into
central/eastern Montana as they move to the east/southeast as a
weak upper level wave slides through northwesterly flow. For
early evening update have increased cloud cover a bit to address
this. Otherwise...previous forecast is in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Temperatures are the main forecast issue in the short term period.

A weak trough has made it through the forecast area. Northwest
flow behind the trough was enough to help bump temperatures up at
Bismarck today. Surface flow is already shifting back southwest
over western ND at this time.

Tonight...Sunny skies late this afternoon will give way to slowly
increasing upper level cloud cover tonight. Upper level ridging
remains over the area with a very slowly increasing surface
pressure gradient. Although 85h temperatures and 1000-500mb
thickness increases tonight, we will still see a good radiational
cooling evening. Generally leaned toward cooler side of guidance
tonight, however we will likely see another wide range of
temperatures depending on elevation and winds. Overall though, our
cooler areas continue to trend warmer and perhaps most areas will
remain above zero.

Surface gradient increases on Tuesday and although we see an
increase in high level clouds, think the bump in temperatures
attributed to increased mixing will outweigh the negative
influence of increased high thin cloud cover. Thus highs Tuesday
are expected to be warmer, in the mid 20s to mid 30s. We did not
go as high as most guidance and again leaned toward a blend of the
cooler consensus of the raw model guidance, which has performed
well lately, with our give SuperBlend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Quasi-zonal upper flow continues Tuesday night and Wednesday with
a downsloping southwest to west surface flow. Wednesday is
expected to be our warmest day of the week with highs potentially
rising into the lower 40s southwest. We again leaned toward the
cooler side of guidance and later shifts may need to ratchet
temperatures down a little more. Without our snowpack we would
certainly see the potential for much warmer temperatures with
unseasonably warm mid level heights over the northern plains.

The surface gradient relaxes by Thursday and flow turns more
southerly bringing an increase in low level moisture that arrives
in earnest by Friday. On Thursday, expect highs probably a bit
cooler than Wednesday but still seasonably mild.

Friday through Monday a blocking upper level pattern develops to
our east and an upper level trough in the west eventually lifts
into the northern plains and stalls as it encounters the upper
ridging to our east. This will bring a chance of precipitation
Friday night through Sunday and possibly into Monday with
gradually cooling temperatures through the weekend. There are
still significant model differences in how and where this blocking
pattern sets up and the resulting weather for the northern
plains. At this time appears that precipitation amounts will be
light but will certainly need to monitor in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Mainly high
level cirrus clouds expected across TAF sites. Surface high pressure
was centered over south central ND at midnight CST. As the high
moves southeastward, expect southwest winds to become well
established as the pressure gradient increases throughout the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV



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