Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300527
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
MUCH IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT A FEW PLACES...LIKE HETTINGER ARE
ALREADY AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO BUMPED THEM DOWN A LITTLE. ALSO CUT
BACK ON CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD AID IN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHER
THAN THAT...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED. JUST
BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
FEATURE. HAVE ALSO NOTED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY NORTH IS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MANITOBA. WILL LOWER THE RH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE VERY DRY THIS
DOES NOT IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
THEN EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE
PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN DESCRIBED WILL BE
DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER BY A BIT
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIP A FEW SHOWERS BUT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE STILL DRY SO PRECIPIATION WILL BE
SPOTTY. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME COOLING...AT
LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
15KT TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH/KS



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