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000
FNUS73 KBIS 211101
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Minot Spring Rx 2024...US FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and dry conditions are expected at the burn site today. Minimum
afternoon relative humidity values are expected to dip to 18 percent while winds
increase to 12 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph, leading to near critical
fire weather conditions.

Winds diminish some tonight, but will shift towards the west, as humidity values
recover to around 53 percent.

Winds will increase through the morning on Monday, with gusts to 45 mph in the
afternoon, while minimum humidity values drop to around 30 percent. There is a
40 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon, but these could be quite light,
and given the dry lower atmosphere could lead to very gusty and erratic winds.

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 23
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   4   3   3   5   13  16  31  28
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............30  33  43  47  51  53  55  58  60  62
RH..............60  58  41  33  27  23  22  19  18  18
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   10  10  11  12  14  15  15
20 FT wind gust.10  12  12  15  15  15  17  19  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.3 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  15  15  17  18  20  22  23

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph shifting to the west 15
                    to 20 overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Decreasing clouds in the morning, then increasing clouds
                    in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. West winds 15 to 22 mph increasing to
                    20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...Bela Harrington
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411399.2/BIS
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bela_harrington@fws.gov