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000
FXUS64 KBMX 211715
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

The last few showers are about an hour or two from moving into
Georgia as the low-level trough axis is passing over the area. The
mid-level portion of the trough is still moving towards the Mid-
South region, but drier air is already moving in over western
portions of Central Alabama where cloud cover is beginning to
decrease. Looks like most locations will have some periods of sun
this afternoon, but the northerly flow won`t allow temperatures
to warm up too much. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s with a
northerly breezy at 8 to 12 mph.

The mid-level trough axis will pass over the area tonight as deeper
north to northwest flow develops, ushering in a cool, dry
continental airmass. There`s a good chance this will be one of the
final nights of the Spring season where temperatures will touch
the upper 30s at some of our northern locations. The rest of the
area will see lows in the lower to mid 40s. Sunny skies are
expected tomorrow as deep ridging builds across the Lower MS River
Valley making for a pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

We can expect a chilly Monday night and Tuesday morning as high
pressure becomes centered over the region. Clear skies and very
light winds will promote strong radiational cooling with lows
mainly in the lower to middle 40s, though the coldest spots
should see upper 30s. Dry conditions are expected to persist
through the end of the long term period, initially supported by
dry west-northwest 500 mb flow through Thursday. Thereafter, a
notable ridge is expected to take hold over the Southeast CONUS
and Gulf of Mexico. This should deflect any shortwaves and keep
conditions dry through Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2024

VFR conditions will return area-wide over the next hour or two as
the last few showers and low clouds exit the area. Cloud cover will
be decreasing through the afternoon with SKC expected overnight as
dry air filters in. The pressure gradient is strong enough to
support northerly sfc winds at 8 to 12 mph with an occasional gust
up to 20 mph. Winds will stay up around 5 to 8 mph overnight. High
pressure builds in tomorrow leading to favorable aviation weather
conditions.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rainfall is expected through midday, drier air arriving
this afternoon, with rain ending. RH values on Monday are
expected to be in the 25 to 35 percent range with northerly 20
foot winds of 6 to 10 mph. 20ft winds become southerly on Tuesday,
at 6 to 10mph, with minimum RH values in the 28 to 40 percent
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  68  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    39  67  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  40  68  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  40  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      41  67  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      44  68  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  43  70  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...86/Martin