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000
FXUS64 KBMX 101804
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
104 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED APR 10 2024

A low pressure system will move across the southeast today with the
center of the low slowly meandering northeast through the southern
MS River Valley today and tonight. As storms continue to the east,
instabilities will be meager, struggling to get to 500 j/kg at
best through the afternoon, and though there is upper level
divergence and low LCLs, most of the other dynamics and parameters
needed for severe weather will occur behind the widespread area
of thunderstorms, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is the far southeastern counties wehre there is a tad
more instability and 0-1 km wind shear could keep the threat of a
tornado and damaging winds in the forecast.

As the low pressure moves into the TN Valley this evening, a mid
level jet will develop and strengthen over Alabama. This should
increase winds and shear across the state. High res models are
expecting this current area of convection to move east, with a
possible redevelopment of activity in the evening and early night.
Instabilties appear to be stronger, closer to 1000 j/kg. With
upper level divergence, 0-1 km shear of 70 mph and stronger 0-6 km
shear, and instabilities, strong to severe thunderstorms could
develop. Widespread development is not expected, but isolated
storms could produce damaging winds and large hail is not counted
out.

A pressure gradient is expected to tighten with gradient winds
gusting up to 35 mph overnight and through the day on Thursday. A
Wind Advisory will likely be needed, but will assess and decide
this afternoon and evening.

PW values will be max for this time of year, with larger values in
areas south of I20. Any thunderstorm could be capable of
producing high rain rates, with a threat for flash flooding,
especially in stronger storms that manage to train over the same
areas. Flooding of urban and localized areas is a high possibility
if the current widespread area of thunderstorms lingers,
especially over the southeast this afternoon where the stronger
thunderstorms are expected to move.

Light scattered showers are possible through the early morning,
with wrap around moisture from that low, with showers expected to
become scattered to widespread across the northern counties
through the afternoon Thursday. Northwest flow will set up
bringing cooler and drier air to the state with conditions feeling
cooler than the past couple of days by the end of the short
term.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT WED APR 10 2024

A much quieter weather pattern is expected for the end of the week
through early next week. The main upper level trough axis will be to
our east Thursday night and high pressure builds into the region
Friday through the weekend. This will lead to clearing skies and a
warming trend with highs in the Saturday through Tuesday. A weak
upper level shortwave slides to our north Sunday night into Monday,
which could lead to increasing clouds, but guidance continues to
show any rainfall staying to our north.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED APR 10 2024

A widespread area of rain moving through the state now will
provide plenty of moisture for MVFR ceilings this afternoon, and
up to IFR visibilities in any thunderstorms. Models suggest a
break in activity this evening, but confidence is low on timing so
will continue mention of rain and thunder through the night.
Thursday, light rain is possible across the northern sites with
low level moisture plentiful and keeping MVFR ceilings.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today as a storm
system moves through the area. Rain chances gradually decrease on
Thursday before drier air moves in on Friday. Windy and dry
conditions are expected on Friday as the system moves out. Min RHs
could drop below 30% for a good portion of the area with 20 ft
winds in the 10-15 mph range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  68  46  70 /  90  50  10   0
Anniston    60  69  48  70 /  90  40   0   0
Birmingham  58  66  49  71 /  80  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  68  48  74 /  80  40   0   0
Calera      59  66  49  72 /  90  40   0   0
Auburn      63  71  50  70 / 100  20   0   0
Montgomery  61  69  50  72 /  90  20   0   0
Troy        62  72  50  73 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-
Pickens-Pike-Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24