Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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Spot Forecast for Lily Lake Pile Unit...National Park Service
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
419 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Upper ridging will push across the forecast area
today and tonight with fairly weak zonal flow aloft. By Saturday,
the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly through the day. Moisture
will increase over the forecast area later today continuing
overnight and on Saturday with scattered snow showers expected
Saturday.  Smoke dispersion will become good for a few hours this
afternoon and excellent for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy until 0800, then mostly sunny
                    until 1500, then partly cloudy(30-35%).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........37%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8-12 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 1000, then 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1400, then
                    good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  28  25  22  18  15  12  17  22  26  31  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............25  26  27  31  34  37  40  42  43  43  44  43
RH..............77  73  70  61  53  47  45  41  39  39  37  40
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  9   12  10  8   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  16  16  15  18  16  13  15  15  15  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.1 4.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  17  20  18  17  15  16  17  20  20  17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   8   9   12  30  41  45  57  67  86  87  67
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   F   F   F   G   G   G   G

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(40-50%) until 2000, then mostly
                    cloudy(60-65%) until 0400, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%). Slight chance of snow after
                    0500.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........66%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL until 1900, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8-17 mph until 0500, then around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  46  51  56  62  67  72  66  60  54  47  41
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20
Temp............42  38  35  30  29  30  30  30  29  30  29  31
RH..............41  47  54  66  66  63  60  60  60  60  65  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   6   7   7   7   7   8   9   12
20 FT wind gust.15  13  12  9   9   12  12  12  12  13  15  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  8   8   8   9   10  10  12  14  15  17  20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  4   4   4   4   5   5   6   7   8   9   10
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-40%) until 1200, then mostly
                    cloudy(55-60%). Slight chance of snow showers
                    until 1200, then chance of snow showers.
CWR.................9 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........41%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13-19 mph with gusts to around 39
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 5100 ft AGL after
                    1200.
Transport winds.....West 22-30 mph until 1100, then southwest 31-37
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then
                    good until 1100, then very good until 1200,
                    then excellent until 1600, then very good until
                    1700, then good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  35  35  35  35  35  58  58  58  58  58  58
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............32  33  35  37  39  41  45  45  46  47  46  45
RH..............63  65  62  59  55  51  44  43  41  41  41  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..14  15  16  17  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.25  25  26  28  31  35  38  39  38  37  37  36
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 4.6 3.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.22  23  25  26  30  33  37  37  36  36  33  31
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  23  36  51  81  116 157 161 165 170 133 99
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   F   G   VG  E   E   E   E   VG  G

$$
Forecaster...RJK
Requested by...Ian Clark
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2403911.14/BOU
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL Iclark.nps@gmail.com


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