035
FXUS64 KBRO 302351 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
651 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

With no frontal boundaries expected to move over the local forecast
area, the short-term forecast period will feature a continued steady
state (status quo) pattern of warmth, humidity, and mainly dry
weather conditions. Overcast skies will remain in place particularly
during the morning and nighttime hours with some breaks in the
overcast during the afternoon hours.

Forecast models are signaling at the potential for an isolated/rogue
shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday given the robust instability
parameters, yet little to no lifting mechanism to support. The best
chance for any shower or storm will be located over the northern
half of the area (i.e. Northern Ranchlands) as a shortwave is
expected to track north of our CWA (i.e. CRP Corpus Christi and
EWX Austin/San Antonio`s area). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
in Norman, Oklahoma has a general outlook/risk for thunderstorms
over the northern half of our local forecast area for Wednesday.

Tonight and Wednesday night will remain warm and muggy with
overnight low temperatures ranging between the mid to upper 70s with
similar dewpoint temperatures. There is low, but non-zero
probability of some mist/fog development tonight with copious
amounts of low level moisture in place. A lot will depend on how
strong/weak the winds become tonight.

Daytime high temperatures tomorrow (Wednesday) are expected to be in
the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley (near 80F over/along the coastal areas).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The long-term forecast period will feature a continuation, steady
state pattern of warm, humid, and mainly dry conditions. Towards the
end of the extended (i.e. Sunday-Tuesday timeframe), we could see
hot conditions (i.e. triple digit heating) developing over parts of
the local forecast area as 500mb geopotential heights increase and a
~591 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds northward into our CWA.

Thursday through Sunday, daytime highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley (lower 80s along/near the coast). Nighttime lows are
expected to range from the mid to upper 70s.

On Monday, daytime highs are expected to rise into the lower 90s to
near 100F across the region with the hottest temperatures being
located over our far western sections (i.e. Zapata and Starr
Counties). Max heat indices are expected to range from 100F-105F
with coverage being over the western 2/3rds of the forecast area.

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day of the long-term period
with highs in the low/mid 90s to lower 100s. There will be more
coverage in mid 90s to near 100F degrees with the hottest temps
again being over our western sections. Widespread heat indices
between 100-109F are expected over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley.

The NWS HeatRisk tool is suggesting mostly moderate risks to heat
related impacts through the long-term period with minor risks
confined mainly along the coastal areas. By the time we get into
Monday-Tuesday of next week, we`ll need to monitor trends to see
if the risk increases into the moderate to major categories (with
triple digit heat and heat indices expected). This ultimately will
depend on how strong the aforementioned sub-tropical heat dome
gets.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ceilings are currently MVFR at BRO and HRL and VFR at MFE.
Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR levels tonight, before
returning to MVFR levels after sunrise. Southeasterly winds are
expected to continue through the period, becoming gusty Wednesday
morning. With winds remaining around 10 knots and cloudy skies
expected to persist overnight, fog development looks unlikely,
though some slight visibility reductions are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night....Moderate winds and seas are
expected through Wednesday night. Wave heights over the Gulf are
expected to range between 4-5 feet.

Thursday through Tuesday....Moderate winds and seas are expected to
continue Thursday through next Tuesday. Wave heights are expected
to range between 4-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions are possible at times during this timeframe (especially
over the offshore Gulf waters).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  88  77  89 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  91  76  92 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  92  78  94 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  92  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  81  77  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  87  75  87 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE