Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 210813
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
313 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Overrunning conditions continue across Deep South Texas early this
morning as a weak coastal trough lingers over the coastal counties
and a warm front advancing northward. Persistent light rain/drizzle
with areas of fog continue across portions of the CWA, especially
along and east of the I-69C corridor. The Storm Prediction Center
SPC/ continues to maintain a general thunderstorm risk for all of
Deep South Texas with a marginal risk of severe storms just north of
Brooks and Kenedy Counties. Latest Brownsville radar indicates
pockets of light to moderate convection across the coastal counties
and extending into the adjacent coastal waters. The fast movement of
these showers should generally produce rainfall amounts between 0.10
to 0.25 of an inch with slightly higher amounts across Brooks and
Kenedy Counties. Rain chances will quickly end from west to east
through the morning hours as drier air filters into the region with
the passage of a short wave.

Temperatures will quickly warm today behind the warm front. Highs
will be in the low to mid 80s, except for the 70s along the coast.
Shallow moisture, drier air aloft, and very light winds should
support patchy to areas of fog tonight, especially across the
coastal areas. Lows tonight will generally range from the upper 50s
across the Rio Grande Plains to the mid to upper 60s across the Rio
Grande Valley. Friday will be very warm to hot with highs in the
upper 80s to the low 90s across much of the area.

The rip current risk will remain low today through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A mid-level trough swings from North Texas Thursday night into the
Southeast on Friday. A 500mb ridge follows through the weekend as
a strong low drops into the Desert SW and northwestern Mexico
Sunday into Monday, increasing southwesterly mid-level flow into
early next week, before swinging east across Texas early Tuesday.

A sunny and quiet start to the weekend is expected into Sunday. A
low level jet sets up along the coast Sunday into early Monday,
as low pressure deepens across the Plains, driving breezy to windy
southeasterly winds, currently very close to Wind Advisory
criteria across Cameron County. A cold front arrives late Monday,
with northerly winds continuing into Tuesday, before turning more
easterly. Have still bumped POPs up slightly late Monday into
Tuesday with the passing shortwave and some divergence aloft,
splitting the difference in model output, roughly 10 percent above
NBM and 10 to 20 percent less than other model guidance.

Expect near normal highs in the low to mid 80s are expected over
the weekend, gradually warming into Monday. Lows Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings behind the front range from the mid 50s to near
60 north to south across the CWA, with near normal highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Poor flying conditions will continue through the at least the
first half of the forecast period, before conditions begin to
improve this afternoon from west to east. Widespread IFR/LIFR
ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will persist through late
this morning at all local aerodromes as overrunning conditions
prevail. Gradual improvement in ceilings and visibilities will
begin late this morning into the afternoon as drier air filters
into the region. VFR conditions are expected by late in the
afternoon with a return of possible MVFR conditions late in the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Now through Friday...Rain chances will continue across the Lower
Texas coastal waters this morning due to the combination of
overrunning conditions and as an upper air disturbance approaches
from the west. A few strong storms, especially north of Port
Mansfield, will be possible this morning. Rain chances will quickly
by early afternoon as drier air filters into the region. Otherwise,
generally favorable conditions will prevail through the period with
light winds and low to moderate seas.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Light generally onshore flow is
expected into the start of the weekend as high pressure builds,
turning southeasterly and increasing Sunday into Monday morning,
as low pressure develops across the Plains. Expect favorable
marine conditions into Sunday, with adverse conditions Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed Sunday into Monday, with Small Craft Caution before and
after. Generally dry weather expected through the long term
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             84  67  91  62 /  20  20   0   0
HARLINGEN               86  65  92  59 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 86  66  93  61 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         86  61  92  59 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  67  81  65 /  20  20   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     83  65  88  62 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC


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