Text Products for ESF Issued by BTV

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1149 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
This is the seventh flood outlook for the 2024 winter/spring
flood season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up/formation of river ice
across northern and central Vermont and northern New York. This
outlook is valid for the two week period from March 28 to April
11, 2024.

...Overview...
The potential for open water flooding through early April is below
normal across the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern Adirondacks.
The rest of the area, the open water flooding threat is near
normal. The threat for flooding due to ice jams has passed for the
2023-2024 season, since no river ice exists across the region.

Although the last half of March averaged warmer than normal, the
past week saw a trend back toward cooler than normal conditions.
The pattern remained fairly active as well. A significant storm
system brought widespread snow to the region March 23, with some
areas receiving 2 feet or more of new snow. However, increasing
sun angle and temperatures returning to near to above normal in
the few days since then have allowed substantial snow melt. The
Champlain Valley lost all its new snow, and many locations lost
half or more of the snowpack.

The following is a summary of the conditions by region as of
Thursday morning, March 28, 2024:

...St Lawrence Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none
.Streamflows...Normal
.Soil state...Normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal
.River Ice...None

...Northern Adirondacks...
.Flood Risk...Below normal west, normal east
.Snow Cover...Below normal, little snow below 2000 ft, 10 to 20
inches above 2000 ft, 3+ ft at summit levels
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, little below 2000 ft, 1-3 inches
above 2000 ft, locally more at summit level
.Streamflows...Normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Champlain Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Central/northern Green Mountains and Upper CT River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18 inches
mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher summits
.Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half inch
to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...None

...Southern VT and the adjacent Connecticut River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18
inches mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher summits, 3+ ft at
summit level
.Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half inch
to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...None

..Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...
A strong storm system brought widespread snow to the region March
23, with some locations reporting 2 feet or more of accumulation.
The greatest snowfall occurred across portions of central and
southern Vermont. Warming temperatures thereafter has allowed some
of this snowpack to melt, especially at lower elevations; the
Champlain Valley has lost all its snow. Even higher locales lost a
substantial amount of the new snowpack, though isolated spots are
still indicating around 1.5 of depth. Despite this, snow pack
and the snow water equivalent remain below normal across the vast
majority of the region.

...River and River Ice Conditions...
Daily and multi-day averaged streamflows remain at or above
normal across the entire region. This is indicative of residual
interflow and runoff from recent precipitation, and some surface
recharge through snowmelt in the lower elevations.

No river ice exists across all of Vermont and northern New York.

...Soil Moisture and Groundwater Conditions...
Moist soil conditions have persisted across the region over the
past two weeks. Some of the moist near-surface readings have
occurred due to recent snowmelt recharge and rainfall. This is
supported by the latest groundwater data from the United States
Geological Survey showing most values ranging through the mid to
upper quartiles.

...Weather Outlook...
The first few days of the outlook period will be dry, but the
potential for widespread substantial precipitation increases by
the middle of next week as a storm system looks to affect the
region. Precipitation is still difficult to discern at this time,
though it appears at least eastern Vermont should mostly see snow
as temperatures will return to near or even slightly below normal.
A blocking pattern sets up thereafter, so unsettled weather will
be more likely across the Northeast US.

The official National Weather Service 6 to 10 Day Outlook for
April 2-6 matches the above thinking, calling for above normal
precipitation and near normal temperatures.

...Summary...
Based on the meteorological and hydrological information
discussed above, the potential for open water flooding over the
next two weeks is below normal for the St. Lawrence Valley of New
York and northwestern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, across the
northeastern Adirondacks, central and northern Vermont including
the entire Champlain Valley and southern Vermont east of the
Green Mountains, the open water flooding threat is normal. The
current snow depths and snow water equivalents are mainly below
normal, though a few isolated spots in central and southern
Vermont are likely closer to normal due to the recent heavy snow
event. Soil moisture states are generally normal to above normal
as are river flows, but with no widespread rainfall expected over
the next few days, runoff should abate somewhat, though snowmelt
will likely continue. Chances for precipitation increase by the
middle of next week, but temperature profiles indicate that at
least some areas could receive mostly snow. Still, with
substantial liquid precipitation amounts possible, a near normal
flood threat seems reasonable for much of the area outside of the
St Lawrence Valley and northwestern Adirondacks.

No river ice exists across the region, so the threat of ice jam
flooding has passed for this season.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have little or
no snow on the ground and overall predictability beyond 10 days
is generally on the lower side of average.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NWS Burlington
service area is available online at:

www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by
NWS Burlington on Thursday, April 11, 2024.

For access to current weather conditions and forecasts, please
visit our web site at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
