522
FXUS62 KCAE 010909
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
509 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure over the area this morning will move off the
coast this afternoon. Moisture will slowly increase across the
area over the next few days. This will lead to widely scattered
to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day. A cold front will approach the region
late next week leading to possibly more organized thunderstorms
by Thursday. Temperatures should rise to near normal values over
the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sharp ridging aloft will continue to linger across the eastern
US throughout the day today, with an associated surface high
pressure center sagging southeast offshore. The cool-dry
advection that is helping drop temps down into the low 50`s this
morning will slowly wane by the afternoon as winds turn out of
the southeast, as the high moves offshore. So overall, a calm
weather day expected with some afternoon cumulus and light winds
with highs in the mid 80`s. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer
thanks to some moisture return and stronger low level winds,
along with some clouds aloft; temps should stay in the 60`s in
most spots. PWAT`s and low level moisture starts to increase
quickly by early Sunday morning, with some isolated showers
possible particularly across the western Midlands before 7am
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...Upper level trough will move into the
eastern CONUS. The surface and upper ridge will be well
offshore. This will result in southwest flow aloft and
increasing moisture across the area. The models increase
precipitable water across the area to around 1.75 inches.
Instability appears weak with the ensembles CAPE > 500 J/kg
quite low across the area. Mid level lapse rates will be weak
with possibly considerable mid level cloudiness. Temperatures
still a little below normal in the low to mid 80s. Models
suggest a short wave will move through the region in the
afternoon but the stronger dynamics remain to the north across
NC and the Mid Atlantic region. The CAMS suggest limited
coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC Piedmont early in the
afternoon where the moisture flux will be focused. Convection
should diminish early in the evening although weak short wave
energy moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated
showers into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands.

Monday and Monday night...Northwest flow aloft on Monday with
the upper trough axis offshore. Short wave ridging may result in
mid level capping. but lapse rates may be a bit steeper. Models
indicate a little more instability but short wave ridging may
result in mid level capping. Higher precipitable water values
are in the coastal plain. Lack of trigger suggests widely
scattered showers or thunderstorms, possibly focused in the east
and mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
back to around 90 degrees for high temps with less cloudiness
and warm advection. Low temperatures at or above normal in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Little change in the air mass Tuesday, the upper flow appears more
zonal with a flat upper ridge over the area. This is evident in
both the deterministic and ensemble models. Short waves appear
upstream near the central Mississippi Valley. the air mass does
appear to be a little more unstable as precipitable water again
increases, but expect some capping. Any Convection in the
afternoon should be widely scattered with trigger lacking. Temps
continue to warm.

The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late week
as a anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern Plains
into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move toward the region
Thursday and pass southeast of the area sometime Friday based
on latest ensembles. Ensembles also indicate stronger
instability and deep layer shear ahead of the front by Thursday.
So, scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnally
driven. Stronger storms possible Thursday as the front
approaches. Temperatures near normal until frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Winds will slowly shift out of the southeast this morning, with
some gusts 10-12 knots possible this afternoon. A typical 5-6k
foot cumulus scattered deck is expected this afternoon thanks to
moisture return. Winds weaken overnight with some mid-level
clouds likely. Rain chances start to increase late in the TAF
period, but confidence is still too low in timing and coverage
for any mention yet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon showers and
storms each day Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise, low chance
of restrictions late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$