786
FXUS61 KCAR 070435
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1235 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will then build over the area from the northwest
late tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will slide
south of the area Wednesday and again on Thursday. A new low may
develop to our south on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM Update: Skies are now clrg across most of the FA late
Tngt as a weak cold front currently is crossing Downeast areas.
Only chgs from the prev fcst update was to lower wind speeds ovr
Nrn vlys for the remainder of the ngt.

Prev Disc: The weak cold front boundary will move SE out over
the waters overnight, ushering in high pressure. For this
evening, breaks the in the low cloud cover will help support
convection with the associated instability along the front. With
the CAPE values above 100J/kg and steep lapse rates across the
north, cannot rule our some isolated thunderstorms embedded in
the scattered showers this evening. As the front exits, some
lingering showers are expected with any left over diurnal
heating. By tonight, clouds will decrease with the high pressure
settling in. The S flow along the coast will remain until after
midnight when light NW winds move in. During this time before
midnight, the marine layer is expected to move onshore, causing
patchy to areas of fog for Downeast and across the waters. Temps
will be cooler night with the weak cold front passage.

For Tuesday, high pressure will settle in making for mostly
sunny skies and breezy NW winds. Vorticity maps show some
shortwave energy moving across the north in the afternoon,
causing some clouds to build in, but should be short lived. Due
to the NW flow and increasing clouds, areas in the north will be
in the low 60s while the south will be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upr trof will be heading into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday
evening with flow transitioning to a zonal flow. At the surface,
ridge axis will be nosing into the area overnight before
shifting east into Canada Wednesday morning. Fairly potent s/wv
will be rounding the base of the trof with inland low moving
into New England. As it does it will begin spreading showers
into the CWA after 18z. Secondary cyclogenesis occurs off of the
coast late Wednesday night with inland low beginning to fill.
How far south this low tracks will determine axis of heaviest
rainfall. 12z NAM is the furthest north with lopres as well as
the qpf axis, while remaining operational members and their
ensembles are just slightly further south with both. Have kept
likely pops confined south of a Moosehead to Danforth line with
chc pops further to the north. As system heads east Thursday
morning it will take pcpn with it. However, given lingering upr
lvl trof still in the vicinity have kept slgt chc for showers
during the day on Thursday, especially given diurnal convection.

Temps likely to top out in the lower 60s on Wednesday, in the lower
50s along the coast with onshore flow. Thursday/s maxes will be a
degree or two lower but overall near normal temps expected
throughout the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the ever persistent longwave trof draped fm the Maritimes
twd the Midwest a similar system to Wednesday night will be
approaching the area at the end of the week. Latest 12z guidance
has trended just a smidge further to the south with the
heaviest rainfall. Expecting rain to move into the region toward
midnight Thursday night and out of the area by midnight Friday
night. Once again, northern zones will be hard-pressed to see
any heavier rainfall as most of it will remain acrs the Downeast
areas given the latest guidance. Once the system clears out
Saturday evening, slgt chc to chc pops lingers Sunday into
Monday.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be below normal in clouds
and rain before moderating to near/above normal on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for all terminals this evening with some
MVFR in scattered showers. Possible isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions tonight and Tuesday. Light
and variable winds tonight, then NW winds 5-15 kts Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night...VFR. NW 5-10kts.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Becoming MVFR south in the
afternoon in light showers. Light NE-SE winds Wednesday
afternoon becoming E 5- 10kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. NE 5-10kts.

Thursday night-Saturday...MVFR south with VFR north. ENE
5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through
Thursday. Winds will increase out of the northeast beginning
Thursday night with marginal gusts over the outer waters on
Friday. Seas increase above 5ft Friday night and remain elevated
through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...VJN/Buster
Marine...VJN/Buster