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000
FXUS64 KCRP 170552
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A quasi-stationary upper pattern is expected during the period,
yet with an upper low across the northern CONUS/southern Canada
Wednesday (deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS). In response, persistent
onshore flow is expected over the region. Although PWAT values
will remain above normal over the CWA during the period, strong
CIN will preclude surface-based convection over the Coastal
Plains/Victoria Crossroads. However, owing lower CIN values over
the western Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains (NAM deterministic
output), surface parcels may reach their respective LFCs late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Will forecast isolated
convection over Webb/LaSalle counties for the 00-06z Thursday
period (although will probably occur in the 00-03z Thursday range).
Observations/spectral density at buoy 42019 (6ft/8s) swells and
weak to moderate onshore flow suggests a High risk of rip
currents. The WaveWatch suggests that swell periods may fall to 7s
Wednesday. Will upgrade from Moderate to High risk for tonight
and from Low to Moderate for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Key Messages:

▶ There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush
Country Thursday.

▶  Cold Front This Weekend with a Medium chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms

During the long term period a quasi-zonal flow aloft and a few
mid- level lows/embedded shortwaves coming off the eastern Pacific
combined with our proximity to a surface boundary is expected to
provide enough instability and moisture to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast daily until after the front comes
through the region.

A stalled surface front stretched across from west Texas northeast
towards OK at the beginning of the period will approach our CWA
Thursday and will combine with several mid-level shortwaves bringing
a low (15-20%) chance for showers/thunderstorms across western
portions of the CWA. If storms form, some may become strong to
severe Thursday afternoon as upper level support exists in the
region but the lower-mid levels will be capped. As a result of the
conditionally unstable profile, SPC has most of South Texas under a
general thunder category with portions of our northwestern Brush
Country under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms
where better dynamics exist. Low chances (<30%) for showers and
storms will continue as we head into the weekend.

A mid-level shortwave and reinforcing surge over the Central CONUS
will help drive the aforementioned front southward this weekend with
FROPA across South Texas expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. There`s a moderate to high chance (50-75%) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night as the front comes through, with
locales towards the northern border of our CWA having the best
chance for activity.

Low level temperature advection will lead to very warm
temperatures Thursday and Friday, especially out west under
partly cloudy skies, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into
the triple digits in some places. Otherwise, highs generally
range in the 80s through the end of the week, then we dip into the
70s after the front to start out next week, then it`s back into
the 80s by Tuesday. Overnight, lows will start out Thursday night
in the 70s then will dip into the low 60s/upper 50s Sunday night
then warm back into the 70s by mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected across all sites tonight with
some brief periods of LIFR at VCT. VCT could see some areas of
patchy fog around 09-15z which was represented in the TAF. Most
sites should transition to VFR by mid to late morning except CRP
which will remain MVFR. Another round of low stratus is expected
early Thursday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through
Wednesday night, given the quasi-zonal upper pattern over the
CONUS. Weak to moderate onshore flow will become northeasterly
and moderate Sunday after a front moves offshore. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are expected behind the front with
weak to moderate onshore flow returning by Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along
the front with a moderate chance (45-60%) early Sunday dropping to
a low chance (20-30%) by Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  73  87  71 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          86  71  86  70 /  10  10   0   0
Laredo            96  76  98  73 /  10  20  10  10
Alice             89  72  92  71 /  10  10   0  10
Rockport          82  72  82  72 /  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           94  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  10
Kingsville        88  72  89  71 /  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       82  73  82  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...NP/92