Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 170925
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
425 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Majority of tonight`s convection has moved out of the watch area
as the shortwave lifts northeast, so the watch for the remaining
counties has been canceled. There is still some lingering showers
and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains, but this is unlikely to
become severe with limited CAPE and an environment that has
already seen a round of convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Vigorous shortwave passing across the region early this morning with
several areas of thunderstorms. This activity will continue off to
the northeast. Additional isolated activity will remain possible
behind the main area of storms through the morning hours.  By mid-
day we`re looking at mainly 20-30 PoPs and decreasing through the
afternoon after the cold front pushes through the region. Despite
the mid-day frontal passage today, it`ll take until tomorrow before
we really see a decrease in moisture through the area when
reinforcing ridging pushes down from the north. We`ll see persistent
low cloud cover today that will keep high temperatures generally in
the 70s. Expect overnight lows tonight in the upper 50s and lower
60s.  As that reinforcing ridge comes in tomorrow, we`ll see a
breezy northeast wind develop and temperatures likely remaining in
the 60s throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Through mid-week a mid/upper level low will be stationed over the SW
US and keep pacific moisture streaming overhead to keep us under
persistent cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover, overnight lows
may reach "chilly" criteria with lows in the upper 40s north
Monday night and around 50 Tuesday night.  The rest of the area
will be in the lower to mid 50s both nights. High temperatures will
once again be mainly in the 60s for Tuesday. After a dry Monday
and Tuesday, rain chances return for Wednesday into Thursday ahead
of the next cold front. At this time rainfall probabilities are
mainly in the 20-30% range but could be a bit higher Thursday near
the coast. Rainfall totals generally less than an inch through
the mid-week period. The aforementioned low finally kicks out mid
week with dry and warming conditions expected for the latter part
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Another round of thunderstorms will move across the area tonight.
IFR CIGS also develop for at least part of the night as well. Some
uncertainty whether CIGS improve behind the storms like they did
last night, but guidance suggests they stay low through the night,
and through the day tomorrow, improving only to MVFR levels. A
cold front will move through during the day Sunday, but a
significant wind increase is not anticipated. As the front moves
through additional showers and storms will be possible, but
convection should come to an end by the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Weak onshore flow this morning will become more northeasterly this
afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Patchy to areas of
fog, mostly with visibilities of 1 to 3 miles is expected through
this morning and should improve this afternoon. Expect off and on
showers and storms today. Winds increase late tonight into Monday
and small craft advisories will likely be needed. A transition to
weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Tuesday. Generally weak
to moderate onshore flow and increasing moisture are expected
Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers are
expected Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  62  70  55 /  40  20  10   0
Victoria          75  58  69  47 /  80  10   0   0
Laredo            76  61  66  56 /  40  30  50  10
Alice             76  60  70  53 /  40  20  20   0
Rockport          76  61  71  55 /  60  20  10   0
Cotulla           73  59  68  54 /  60  30  20   0
Kingsville        77  61  69  54 /  40  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       74  63  71  58 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...PH


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