Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 162051
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Key Messages:
- Slight risk of severe storms again overnight tonight.
- Marginal to Slight risk of flash flooding today through Sunday
morning.
A wake low developed behind this mornings front and is now over the
Gulf waters moving eastward. Tonight another round of showers and
storms is expected as a shortwave brings PVA from a Desert SW Low,
across South Texas from west to east tonight. Similar to last night,
expecting these storms to fire up west of the Rio Grande then
cross the border moving off towards the east/northeast. Most of
South Texas remains under a SLGT risk for severe thunderstorms and
a Marginal to Slight risk for excessive rainfall. PoP`s this
afternoon into this evening will gradually increase out west and
peaks around 06Z with a high (around 80-90%) chance. Then storm
activity will migrate eastward throughout Sunday morning before
chances diminish to silent PoP`s Sunday evening.
Hazards: Severe thunderstorms with wind and large hail as the main
threats. Minor flash flooding is possible especially in low-lying
drainage/areas prone to flooding. Timing of hazards early Sunday
morning through early afternoon. While the probabilities for
isolated tornadoes are very low (~2%) it can`t be ruled out.
Temperatures: Afternoon highs will be in the 80s today, upper 70s
tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid 60s and in the
low 60s tomorrow night accompanied by mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Key Messages:
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday
- Strong offshore flow with wind gusts near Gale force Monday
Drier/cooler Monday/Monday night over the CWA in response to a surge of high
pressure (in response to a high-amplitude upper trough over the Midwest/
Mississippi Valley.) As this upper level disturbance moves eastward across
the eastern CONUS, the persistent cut-off low over the southwestern CONUS is
expected to finally progress across the region Thursday (ECMWF/GFS deterministic
runs). The GFS predicts PWAT values to increase to above normal by late
Tuesday/Wednesday. Concur with the NBM with respect to isolated/scattered
showers Wednesday over the CWA, and scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday
given the expected combination of sufficient moisture, instability, and upper
forcing from the approaching formerly cut-off low. As the upper system moves
east, drying/subsidence expected Friday/Saturday. Low minimum relative humidity
values are expected Friday/Saturday, yet winds are expected to remain below
the Elevated fire weather threshold.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Difficult forecast. Currently have a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings.
Expect that to continue until the next round of storms moves west
to east across South Texas again tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to affect all sites with activity expected
to peak between 06-12Z. Have included IFR ceilings and some Prob30
LIFR ceilings. Expect to see ceilings bounce around a bit so have
included that in TAF`s but confidence is on the lower end hence
the prob30s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Weak onshore flow will be variable from the southeast to east
today before becoming northeast tomorrow night and increasing to
Strong levels tomorrow night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected to develop late tomorrow night. Scattered thunderstorms
and numerous showers can be expected over the waters late tonight
through tomorrow evening when activity tapers off. A high amplitude
upper level disturbance is expected to generate a surge of
surface high pressure Monday. Strong offshore flow expected
Monday/ Monday night. Wind gusts may approach Gale. Improving
marine conditions expected Tuesday. Increasing onshore flow, in
advance of upper disturbance approaching from the west, will
increase the chance for convection Wednesday/ Thursday. Drier
conditions Friday/Saturday as the upper disturbance moves east of
the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 67 78 61 70 / 60 40 0 10
Victoria 65 76 57 69 / 90 70 0 0
Laredo 67 78 60 67 / 90 30 30 40
Alice 67 80 59 70 / 70 40 10 10
Rockport 67 77 61 72 / 80 60 0 0
Cotulla 66 76 59 69 / 90 50 10 10
Kingsville 67 78 61 69 / 60 40 10 10
Navy Corpus 67 76 62 70 / 60 50 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....WC/87
AVIATION...BF